One of the Canadiens' biggest weaknesses for the last several years, once you get past the gaping hole at centre, is the defence. Andrei Markov has been the only elite player on the back end for the Habs for ages, and the rotating cast around him has varied from "excellent PP guy" to "what the hell is he thinking?" Throughout it all though, the one constant has been the crappy style the D plays generally, regardless of personnel. The way they give up the blueline like Sean Avery gives up IQ points is frustrating and ineffective. And the way they get caught in the opponent's cycle with no solution for clearing the puck is just pathetic.
So the first thing the Habs have to do with their defence is change the style they're playing, and to do that effectively, they need to hire a D-coach who can teach the players a better way of doing things. I've mentioned Chris Chelios as a candidate, but no matter who it is (and I contend it must be someone), it should be a person who's both played the position and played a system he understands well enough to teach. Chelios certainly has the experience on the ice and the knowledge of a good system. So does Guy Lapointe. Larry Robinson allegedly might be interested in coaching again. There are others. I'd like to see the Canadiens hire a good D coach before development camp in July.
Once a coach is in place, the team has to decide what kind of style the D should be playing. Since management seems to want a team based on speed and skill, the defence needs to be mobile and good with the puck to complement that team philosophy. The defencemen don't need to necessarily be the biggest guys available, but they should be able to challenge oncoming forwards in the neutral zone and at their own blueline. They should be strong enough to win the puck on the boards, even if they don't always make the big hits and crush guys.
The style the team wants to play needs to be the first consideration when it's time to assess current assets and decide which to keep and which to winnow out. Obviously, Andrei Markov is a keeper. He's a legitimate all-star and the only elite player on the Habs blue line for the last several years. He's also skilled enough to be able to adapt to any system. I'd keep Josh Gorges as well. He's young and still makes some mistakes because of inexperience. But he's also hard-working and smart and comes out with the puck more often than not. I remember when he first came to Montreal, he commented on the fact that the system he'd learned with the Sharks was much more aggressive than the one played in Montreal. The fact that he knows the difference and is able to play the "good" way makes me want to keep him. Mathieu Dandenault is a keeper too. He offers veteran experience, heart, great speed, versatility and decent D learned in the good Detroit system. He should be able to adapt to any coach's style and perform well in a sixth/seventh role. If he chooses to go elsewhere, however, I'd re-sign Francis Bouillon as the spare. He's a warrior who's still got speed and can hit, but I think the team can keep only one of him or Dandenault. I'd keep Ryan O'Byrne, if only because he's a great skater and has good reach with his size. And if Don Lever is somehow associated with the coaching staff, I think O'Byrne will bloom. He played a much better game in Hamilton under Lever than he played in Montreal. In any case, it's too soon to give up on a guy who could be on the brink of getting it all together, especially one who's signed to a cheap deal for the next two years.
Those decisions are the easy ones. Now the tough: what to do with Roman Hamrlik and Mike Komisarek? My first instinct is to keep Komisarek if possible, particularly if he can be placed under the tutelage of a defence coach who can help him with his puck handling. Komisarek's bread and butter has always been his physical play, but after he got hurt this season, he shied away from the hitting he's got to do to earn his money. Without that, his awful decisions with the puck and over-reliance on Markov became glaringly painful to watch. But if he can improve his ability to move the puck and also get over his fear of getting hurt again, he can be an asset. The problem is, that's an "if" we can't answer until after he's already been either signed or let go. In any event, even at the peak of his abilities, a player who brings what Komisarek does is worth about four million a year, maximum. More than that goes to stars like Lidstrom and Niedermayer...and Markov. When Gainey looks at what Komisarek wants, I think we can safely assume the GM is not going to pay Big Mike more than his partner's getting. So, if Komisarek is willing to accept a four-year deal with a cap hit of four million or less, and is willing to work hard with the D coach to improve his all-around game, he's a keeper. If he's not, then he'll walk.
Hamrlik is another problem. He's making five and a half million bucks a year, but had far from a stellar season. He's still got two more years on that deal and there must be concern about whether this season was a fluke or if it marks the beginning of a career decline. I like what Hammer brings when he's playing well, but when he's not, the big minutes he plays hurt more than help the team. The brutal giveaway on the first Boston goal in the last playoff game is the kind of thing you just can't have your veteran shut-down defenceman doing. My inclination would be to trade Hamrlik and his contract to a team like the Kings that has a strong young defence in need of some veteran guidance. Hamrlik still has a good reputation as a mentor after his time partnering Dion Phaneuf in Calgary, and the Kings have tons of picks and prospects that could benefit the Habs. The problem is, who replaces Hamrlik, especially if Komisarek walks?
This summer the UFA defenceman everyone covets is, of course, Jay Bouwmeester. I think Gainey should make a token offer to J-Bo, just in case, but shouldn't spend much time courting him. I think Bouwmeester will end up being another of the "we almost got him but..." free agents who sign anywhere but Montreal. A better bet to replace either Hamrlik or Komisarek might be Francois Beauchemin. He'll be in demand too because he's won a Cup, and plays a solid, mostly mistake-free game on the back end. He can also handle the puck well enough to contribute to a lively offence and has a hammer of a point shot. Beauchemin has said he would consider playing in Montreal and could likely bring a lot of what Hamrlik provides for less money. I think he's gettable and would make a nice replacement for Hammer if Komisarek is re-signed before July 1, or for Komisarek if he decides to leave.
On the PP, Mathieu Schneider's bullet from the point saved the Habs' season from being a complete playoff-less disgrace. But he made way too much money for just a shot. And that's what he is now. He's forty and can't keep up on the defensive side of things anymore. Yannick Weber has the shot as well and can battle on the boards. For the PP, I think the Habs need to give Weber the chance to develop at the NHL level.
So in the end, I see the Canadiens' defence corps most realistically consisting of Markov, Beauchemin, Gorges, Weber, Dandenault, O'Byrne and one of Komisarek or Hamrlik. The wild card(s) in the mix are the two Russian defencemen, Alexei Emelin and Konstantin Korneev and rookie PK Subban. Both Emelin and Korneev have played out their contracts in Russia and both have made at least small noises about being open to moving to North America. The Canadiens are in negotiations right now with Emelin. Of those two, I think Korneev is the better fit for what the Habs would like to be on defence and is the one who'd need less adjustment time before being able to contribute in the NHL. If Gainey can sign one or both of those guys, it could impact who plays in the Canadiens' top six. But of course, nobody knows how their games will translate in the NHL even if they sign with Montreal, so they can't be counted in the big picture yet. As for Subban, common sense says the nineteen-year-old needs a year or so to adjust to the pros. But Subban has surprised at every level he's played and has stated his determination to crack the Habs' lineup next year. At this point, if any of Emelin, Korneev or Subban turns out to be better than the top seven I expect to be on the roster in September, it would be a big surprise and a bonus. As it stands, that top seven isn't a bad lineup and I think it may be the best one Gainey can cobble together while waiting for the rest of the prospects to develop.
And that's how I see the defence lining up for next year.
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Summer Solutions: Coaching
Once the GM (again, we'll go with the assumption that Gainey's staying) has solved his centre problem, the next thing he's going to have to address is the coaching situation. I liked a lot of things about Guy Carbonneau and I think now that he's had his stint in the coaching kindergarten that is Montreal, he's eventually land on his feet, as predecessors Claude Julien, Alain Vigneault and "Mike" Therrien did.
But, just as those guys were hired at least partly for their ability to speak French as well as their minor-league coaching experience, Carbonneau, like them, came into the job with no NHL head coaching on his resume. I'm getting a little tired of seeing guys learn the ropes in the big leagues by practicing on the Habs. Now, Bob Gainey has hinted he might not be adverse to continuing as coach of the team. I'm not in favour of that idea, not because I think Gainey's a bad coach, but because I watched him get more and more frazzled and snippy with the media the longer he spent behind the bench. I can't help thinking part of Gainey's success has to do with his aura of calm competence, and the more frustrated exposure he gets, the more that aura is tarnished. For that reason, among others, I think the coach needs to be someone other than the GM.
So, if the organization must start from scratch with the head coach I think it must start from scratch with the entire staff.
Doug Jarvis: He was a very good defensive forward in his day, and he's Bob Gainey's former linemate, roomate and friend. He's followed Gainey from Minnesota to Dallas and now to Montreal. But at this point, one must wonder how much his coaching ability has to do with his longevity behind the bench, and how much he owes to his friendship with the boss. Honestly, if Jarvis' responsibilities this last season included the powerplay and the performance of the defence, and he were to be judged solely on the fulfillment of those responsibilities, he'd surely have to be let go. He did no better at his job than Carbonneau did at his.
Kirk Muller: He's the guy Carbo hired to be his friend and assistant...to have his back in the harsh spotlight in Montreal. He was allegedly responsible for the PK, which has been fairly mediocre, but seemed to be more like the official team cheerleader. In all the descriptions I heard about player interaction with the coaches, it appeared Muller's role was to translate Carbonneau's instructions for players who needed their hands held in order to perform. With Carbonneau gone, it would seem Muller's services, with his one year of university head coaching experience, won't be required any longer either.
Rollie Melanson: A lot of goalies, like Huet and Halak, say Melanson really helped them with the technical aspects of their games. But considering the regression of Carey Price this year, you have to wonder if Melanson is the right coach for him. Watching video of the kid during his junior career and his great WJC performance, and comparing it to the way he looked during the latter half of this season, it's obvious his style has changed dramatically, and not with better results. Considering the amount the organization has invested in Price, it's conceivable the team may dump Melanson for no better reason than to keep Golden Boy happy. After all, if the head coach can be sacrificed for an underachieving team, why shouldn't the goalie coach be axed because of an underachieving netminder?
So, if the team is going to clear the decks in the coaching department, who'll take those jobs for next season? Looking at the head coaching position, I think, as I've said before, that management must choose a coach based on pro-coaching experience, approach to the game, bench-management skills and ability to communicate with and develop young players at the pro level. This last is the most vital requirement in a potential head coach in Montreal. The team is building through the draft and is deeply dependent on the progression of its young players. This season we saw young players like both Kostitsyns, Ryan O'Byrne, Chris Higgins and Tomas Plekanec either stall or take big steps backward in their development. In the cases of Sergei Kostitsyn and O'Byrne, and Carey Price last year, they had to return to Hamilton to get back on track. It might have been the chance to get out of the limelight in Montreal, but I think it was more likely the chance to return to a more nurturing coaching environment that helped them get better. The difference between AHL O'Byrne and NHL O'Byrne was particularly noticable. For this reason, I think Don Lever should be the new head coach. He knows the young core of the team and guided them through the early stages of their pro development. He's well-respected. He's got years of pro coaching experience in the AHL, where he won a championship with a lot of these same players, and as an NHL assistant. I have it on good authority that after Carbo's firing, Lever assisted Gainey in making some of the smarter moves of the latter's post-Carbo tenure as coach, notably in putting the Koivu, Kovalev, Tanguay line together. And most laudable of all, Scotty Bowman himself, when asked his opinion on Lever, said the Habs couldn't find a better man to take over behind the bench. That's good enough for me.
Jarvis should be replaced by a defence coach who can guide the development of the raft of young Ds who'll be entering the organization this year. The team needs a coach who's actually played defence and who knows what he's talking about when he tells the players what to do. The ideal candidate would be Larry Robinson, but he's spoken for in New Jersey. Next would be Jacques Laperierre, but he's taken as well...you guessed it...by Jersey. (Is there any wonder why the Devils play such a consistently smothering defensive system?) There are other good candidates (not Breezer!) out there, but I think, if the Red Wings don't offer Chris Chelios another playing contract next year, he might be worth a try in the coach's role. He knows the challenging, physical style fans would like to see the Habs' D play. He's experienced and wily and knows all the tricks of the game. He's also been steeped in the winning system in Detroit and is used to having young players look up to him and ask him for advice.
Some have said they'd like to see Melanson replaced by Patrick Roy. I'm not sure that's a great idea, for several reasons. Not least among them, Roy's hotheadedness is an even bet to get him in trouble before the season is out. Also, Roy's ego isn't well-stroked if he's toiling away in the shadows as goalie coach. I think, with him, it's head coach or nothing. And there's the question of whether Roy would even be able to translate what made him great into a language he can teach a young goalie. Gretzky can't seem to do it with his young players in Phoenix. So, in lieu of Roy, I'd look at hiring the guy who made Roy famous in the first place: Francois Allaire. Allaire's under contract with the Ducks right now, but his deal ends this summer and he's mentioned publicly that he finds it difficult to be so far away from his home in Quebec. No one can deny he's done a great job with Giguere and now with Hiller, and even though he's known as the guru of the butterfly, he's not the type of coach that tries to force every goalie into a cookie-cutter style. I think Allaire could be the guy who could help Carey Price reach his potential, which is something the Habs are desperate do to.
And, that's how I'd solve the coaching situation.
But, just as those guys were hired at least partly for their ability to speak French as well as their minor-league coaching experience, Carbonneau, like them, came into the job with no NHL head coaching on his resume. I'm getting a little tired of seeing guys learn the ropes in the big leagues by practicing on the Habs. Now, Bob Gainey has hinted he might not be adverse to continuing as coach of the team. I'm not in favour of that idea, not because I think Gainey's a bad coach, but because I watched him get more and more frazzled and snippy with the media the longer he spent behind the bench. I can't help thinking part of Gainey's success has to do with his aura of calm competence, and the more frustrated exposure he gets, the more that aura is tarnished. For that reason, among others, I think the coach needs to be someone other than the GM.
So, if the organization must start from scratch with the head coach I think it must start from scratch with the entire staff.
Doug Jarvis: He was a very good defensive forward in his day, and he's Bob Gainey's former linemate, roomate and friend. He's followed Gainey from Minnesota to Dallas and now to Montreal. But at this point, one must wonder how much his coaching ability has to do with his longevity behind the bench, and how much he owes to his friendship with the boss. Honestly, if Jarvis' responsibilities this last season included the powerplay and the performance of the defence, and he were to be judged solely on the fulfillment of those responsibilities, he'd surely have to be let go. He did no better at his job than Carbonneau did at his.
Kirk Muller: He's the guy Carbo hired to be his friend and assistant...to have his back in the harsh spotlight in Montreal. He was allegedly responsible for the PK, which has been fairly mediocre, but seemed to be more like the official team cheerleader. In all the descriptions I heard about player interaction with the coaches, it appeared Muller's role was to translate Carbonneau's instructions for players who needed their hands held in order to perform. With Carbonneau gone, it would seem Muller's services, with his one year of university head coaching experience, won't be required any longer either.
Rollie Melanson: A lot of goalies, like Huet and Halak, say Melanson really helped them with the technical aspects of their games. But considering the regression of Carey Price this year, you have to wonder if Melanson is the right coach for him. Watching video of the kid during his junior career and his great WJC performance, and comparing it to the way he looked during the latter half of this season, it's obvious his style has changed dramatically, and not with better results. Considering the amount the organization has invested in Price, it's conceivable the team may dump Melanson for no better reason than to keep Golden Boy happy. After all, if the head coach can be sacrificed for an underachieving team, why shouldn't the goalie coach be axed because of an underachieving netminder?
So, if the team is going to clear the decks in the coaching department, who'll take those jobs for next season? Looking at the head coaching position, I think, as I've said before, that management must choose a coach based on pro-coaching experience, approach to the game, bench-management skills and ability to communicate with and develop young players at the pro level. This last is the most vital requirement in a potential head coach in Montreal. The team is building through the draft and is deeply dependent on the progression of its young players. This season we saw young players like both Kostitsyns, Ryan O'Byrne, Chris Higgins and Tomas Plekanec either stall or take big steps backward in their development. In the cases of Sergei Kostitsyn and O'Byrne, and Carey Price last year, they had to return to Hamilton to get back on track. It might have been the chance to get out of the limelight in Montreal, but I think it was more likely the chance to return to a more nurturing coaching environment that helped them get better. The difference between AHL O'Byrne and NHL O'Byrne was particularly noticable. For this reason, I think Don Lever should be the new head coach. He knows the young core of the team and guided them through the early stages of their pro development. He's well-respected. He's got years of pro coaching experience in the AHL, where he won a championship with a lot of these same players, and as an NHL assistant. I have it on good authority that after Carbo's firing, Lever assisted Gainey in making some of the smarter moves of the latter's post-Carbo tenure as coach, notably in putting the Koivu, Kovalev, Tanguay line together. And most laudable of all, Scotty Bowman himself, when asked his opinion on Lever, said the Habs couldn't find a better man to take over behind the bench. That's good enough for me.
Jarvis should be replaced by a defence coach who can guide the development of the raft of young Ds who'll be entering the organization this year. The team needs a coach who's actually played defence and who knows what he's talking about when he tells the players what to do. The ideal candidate would be Larry Robinson, but he's spoken for in New Jersey. Next would be Jacques Laperierre, but he's taken as well...you guessed it...by Jersey. (Is there any wonder why the Devils play such a consistently smothering defensive system?) There are other good candidates (not Breezer!) out there, but I think, if the Red Wings don't offer Chris Chelios another playing contract next year, he might be worth a try in the coach's role. He knows the challenging, physical style fans would like to see the Habs' D play. He's experienced and wily and knows all the tricks of the game. He's also been steeped in the winning system in Detroit and is used to having young players look up to him and ask him for advice.
Some have said they'd like to see Melanson replaced by Patrick Roy. I'm not sure that's a great idea, for several reasons. Not least among them, Roy's hotheadedness is an even bet to get him in trouble before the season is out. Also, Roy's ego isn't well-stroked if he's toiling away in the shadows as goalie coach. I think, with him, it's head coach or nothing. And there's the question of whether Roy would even be able to translate what made him great into a language he can teach a young goalie. Gretzky can't seem to do it with his young players in Phoenix. So, in lieu of Roy, I'd look at hiring the guy who made Roy famous in the first place: Francois Allaire. Allaire's under contract with the Ducks right now, but his deal ends this summer and he's mentioned publicly that he finds it difficult to be so far away from his home in Quebec. No one can deny he's done a great job with Giguere and now with Hiller, and even though he's known as the guru of the butterfly, he's not the type of coach that tries to force every goalie into a cookie-cutter style. I think Allaire could be the guy who could help Carey Price reach his potential, which is something the Habs are desperate do to.
And, that's how I'd solve the coaching situation.
Balm For the Wound
I don't know about you, but I feel a little bit better after last night. It doesn't burn as much to have our terribly injured, terribly outmanned eighth-seed Habs go down to the powerful Bruins after the mighty Sharks choked in the first round again, does it? Imagine being a Sharks fan. You just spent the entire season smugly watching your first-place team look pretty much invincible against all comers. You heard the pundits praise them for getting off to one of the best starts in league history, and compliment Doug Wilson for going out and adding a smart veteran winner in Rob Blake. You were excited because shoring up an already-strong defence with all-star Dan Boyle was the answer to the missing piece question for your team. Then the playoffs start, your big guns Marleau and Thornton once again fail to show up and your team, after all the hope and glory of the season, chokes again. And to your hated cross-state rival into the bargain.
Or, imagine being a Flames fan? You were all excited when Pierre McGuire and the other talking heads were ranting and raving about how your team "won" the trade deadline frenzy by adding Jordan Leopold and Olli Jokinen. They expounded about your team being "the new power" in the west, and how it had added strength that would make it incredibly tough to beat. Yet, here are the Flames, with a fourth straight first-round exit. That's got to hurt. But, at least the Flames fans can lick their wounds by listening to those same talking heads explain the Flames lost because of their injuries. They couldn't be expected to win without Phaneuf in the lineup, after all. The Canadiens loss of Andrei Markov wasn't even close to being responsible for their playoff defeat according to the experts...but then again, he's no Phaneuf.
So, there are worse things than being a Habs fan today. I think it'd be way worse to have a powerhouse team that can't win, than have a team with obvious holes that can be filled with the right moves. I think it would be easier to solve the Canadiens problems than try to figure out how to make Joe Thornton step up in the playoffs.
Or, imagine being a Flames fan? You were all excited when Pierre McGuire and the other talking heads were ranting and raving about how your team "won" the trade deadline frenzy by adding Jordan Leopold and Olli Jokinen. They expounded about your team being "the new power" in the west, and how it had added strength that would make it incredibly tough to beat. Yet, here are the Flames, with a fourth straight first-round exit. That's got to hurt. But, at least the Flames fans can lick their wounds by listening to those same talking heads explain the Flames lost because of their injuries. They couldn't be expected to win without Phaneuf in the lineup, after all. The Canadiens loss of Andrei Markov wasn't even close to being responsible for their playoff defeat according to the experts...but then again, he's no Phaneuf.
So, there are worse things than being a Habs fan today. I think it'd be way worse to have a powerhouse team that can't win, than have a team with obvious holes that can be filled with the right moves. I think it would be easier to solve the Canadiens problems than try to figure out how to make Joe Thornton step up in the playoffs.
Monday, April 27, 2009
Summer Solutions: Centre
The Habs GM (and I'm hoping it continues to be Bob Gainey, so for argument's sake, we'll say it will be) has a LOT of work to do this summer. There are tons of decisions to be made about free agents alone, as well as the draft and the possibility of a trade or two. The way I see it, though, there are certain priorities that must be addressed promptly. First among them is the acquisition of a number-one centre.
This has been the organization's chief need for several years now, and it's obvious the team can't continue without one indefinitely. Koivu, Plekanec, Lapierre and Metropolit were out-sized by most of the other teams they faced this year, and in the playoffs they were out-skilled. With Ben Maxwell being the only offensively-skilled centre with any size in the organization, the number-one centre spot continues to stand empty.
This summer, there are four methods of fixing the problem: signing an unrestricted free agent, sending an offer sheet to a restricted free agent, drafting or trading. My preference of those four options is obviously drafting, as the player in question would be young, cheap and cost nothing to acquire. Unfortunately, that's not an immediate solution for the Canadiens, who'll pick at around number seventeen overall. While this draft is deep, the chances of an eighteen-year-old's potential to make the NHL team immediately, outside the top five or so picks, are slim. Of course, the option to trade up in the draft remains. But the chances of moving into one of the top five or six spots would be really costly...and since the draft is essentially a crap-shoot, the cost would be unquantifiable until three or four years from now. That's a big risk; the kind I don't see Bob Gainey taking. So, the draft isn't the most likely avenue of solving the centre problem in the immediate future.
The second-most desirable route to take then, is signing an unrestricted free agent. That solves the problem without costing the team anything but a salary, albeit an inflated one. Ignoring for a moment the much-discussed reluctance of free agents to sign in Montreal, let's look at the list of top-ranked centres who might be available on July 1. They include Mats Sundin, Mike Cammalleri, Henrik Sedin and Saku Koivu. Outside those four, there really aren't any candidates for a number-one centre position. Cammalleri and Sedin will be the two most coveted of those, even with the built-in limitations accompanying each. Cammalleri is offensively talented but he's streaky and he's small. Sedin is known to be interested in playing on the same team as his brother, and the rumour is they want in the 6-7 million dollar range apiece. Maybe they'll manage that, but it won't be in Montreal. And Henrik on his own is an unknown quantity. Will he be able to produce without his brother? Will he disappear for long stretches as he's been known to do in the past? Sundin is Sundin. After last year, I don't know if Gainey would be interested in chasing the Indecisive One for another summer. Added to the history he now has with Montreal, Sundin is old, expensive, injury-prone and hasn't exactly been lights-out in Vancouver. If Koivu re-signs, we know what we're getting: a small, tough, injury-prone, aging player who's all heart and by all accounts a great leader. But he no longer produces at the level needed by a number-one centre, and even his feistiness can't make up for his lack of size when faced with a guy who's 6'4" on the other team. So, it appears the options are limited when it comes to acquiring a real number-one centre from this year's UFA crop.
The third choice is sending an offer sheet to a restricted free agent. Of course, this option is loaded with more pitfalls than the other two. There's the gamble that the player is worth the draft picks the team would have to give up to get him, and there's the problem of goodwill lost between GMs when one poaches another's players. Following from that, there's a risk involved in poaching if the offended GM wants revenge and finds it by offering for one of Montreal's RFAs in return. There are possibilities out there. Teams that are close to the cap may be forced to give up their RFAs if they can't move the salary they'd have to dump to match an offer. What, for example, could Boston do if someone made an offer for David Krejci? Or Phil Kessel, who can also play centre, although he's a bit small for a number one? What would Edmonton do if Gainey offered for Rob Schremp? Or the Devils if he pitched Travis Zajac? There are possibilities out there, but no one that would be guaranteed to fill the role he'd have to fill in Montreal. And, considering the risks involved in the offer sheet process, I'm not sure it would be the best way to go for the Canadiens.
So, that leaves a trade. The one half the population of Habs followers wants would be five or six assets...roster players, draft picks, prospects...for Vincent Lecavalier. I've detailed the inherent problems in that one before. They include the length and cost of Lecavalier's contract, the uncertainty about his ongoing physical health after shoulder and wrist surgeries, his interest in playing in the fishbowl that is Montreal, his production levels which seem to have peaked a couple of seasons ago and the holes that would inevitably be created in the team's fabric just to acquire him. Getting Lecavalier would be like playing a game of Whack-A-Mole: it would solve one problem, but others would pop up instead. Now there's also the public animosity between Gainey and Brian Lawton, which would make any amicable deal between the two pretty unlikely.
Assuming then that Vinny is off the radar for Montreal, Gainey must look elsewhere for a trade. In deciding whom to target, the Habs must pinpoint exactly what they need in a centre. First would be size, as the other centres, aside from Lapierre, are small. Then there's skating ability, because the Habs want to be identified as a speed-based team. Defensive awareness is important to Canadiens management, so two-way ability is necessary. Finally, like any good number-one centre, the guy must be able to put up points. Secondary considerations would include age, because the team needs someone who can fill that position for several years, and salary, because the looming cap-crunch means sensible contracts are even more important than they've been in recent years. The target also has to be someone who's tradeable by his team. In other words, it can't be a player on a team that has only one strong guy at that position because his team won't part with him and leave itself with the same needs the Habs currently have. That means it has to be a player from a team that already has a good, strong centre or two (aside from the target) on its roster and can spare the kind of guy the Habs need.
There aren't that many teams with that kind of luxury up the middle. They include Philadelphia, with Carter, Richards and Briere at centre, the Rangers with Gomez, Drury and Dubinsky and Pittsburgh with Crosby, Malkin and Staal. Philly will be capped out next year, and would clear up a lot of its problems by moving Briere. The deal could be a good value for the team that takes him, as the Flyers can't take much salary in return, and Briere's deal is a tough pill to swallow in both term and dollar value so Philly might accept less for him than they would otherwise. He's also not got the size of a Carter that would make him more ideal as a number-one centre for Montreal. Add to that the fact that Briere spurned the Habs two years ago to sign with Philly in the first place, and it might be a tough sell to bring him to Montreal now. The Rangers will also be facing cap problems, but will find it hard to move either of the big Gomez or Drury contracts, especially since neither of them has proven to be worth the money they're making in New York.
So, it comes down to Pittsburgh. Obviously, Crosby and Malkin are untouchable. But Staal could certainly be moveable because the Penguins will be facing a cap crunch of their own, and four million bucks a year is a lot for a third-line centre. Also they need good wingers. Staal's got the size Montreal needs. He's young. He's signed for four years. His salary would be more easily justified by a team using him in a more offensive role. He can kill penalties and has great defensive awareness. He wins faceoffs. And his 29-goal rookie season as an eighteen-year-old shows he can put the puck in the net. His numbers for the last couple of seasons haven't been impressive, but one should consider he's getting only about sixteen minutes of ice time per game and not much of that on the powerplay. He's also playing with third-line wingers and gets a lot of time on the PK. I think he might be a good candidate to break out for a team that makes him a number-one centre and gives him the icetime, powerplay opportunities and linemates that position would deserve.
So, if Gainey were to target Staal as a trade candidate, we must consider what they'd have to give up for him. The Pens would like to fill some of their other needs without taking on too much salary. Losing Staal would save them four million. They'd have to replace Staal as the third-line centre, but they'd also like to add a defensive defenceman and a winger or two to complement Malkin and Crosby. Looking at those needs, it's reasonable to expect the Penguins to demand a proven NHL-calibre player as the main return. That means a package of prospects probably isn't going to cut it. The Habs don't have a proven NHL in the stay-at-home D mold that doesn't cost more than Staal, so that's not going to work either. I think it must come down to a winger to play with the Big Two in Pittsburgh. It would have to be someone who can convert, someone who costs less than Staal and someone who gives back some of the threat the Pens would lose in their lineup with Staal gone. Of the Canadiens' wingers with NHL experience, only Guillaume Latendresse, Andrei Kostitsyn, Matt D'Agostini, Max Pacioretty, Greg Stewart, Georges Laraque, Chris Higgins and Sergei Kostitsyn are pretty much sure to be Habs after July 1. Of those, only Higgins or Andrei Kostitsyn would be considered to be the kind of quality player the Pens would expect for Staal. And between them, we know Kostitsyn is the better offensive player.
Depending on what the Pens are looking for in a winger, it would be reasonable to trade either Higgins or Kostitsyn for Staal, straight-up. Both Higgins and Kostitsyn are former first-round draft picks, just as Staal has been. They both have scored similar numbers of goals as Staal in their best years. And, considering Staal's numbers haven't been consistent, his value isn't as high as it might otherwise be.
And that's how I'd see the centre problem fixed.
This has been the organization's chief need for several years now, and it's obvious the team can't continue without one indefinitely. Koivu, Plekanec, Lapierre and Metropolit were out-sized by most of the other teams they faced this year, and in the playoffs they were out-skilled. With Ben Maxwell being the only offensively-skilled centre with any size in the organization, the number-one centre spot continues to stand empty.
This summer, there are four methods of fixing the problem: signing an unrestricted free agent, sending an offer sheet to a restricted free agent, drafting or trading. My preference of those four options is obviously drafting, as the player in question would be young, cheap and cost nothing to acquire. Unfortunately, that's not an immediate solution for the Canadiens, who'll pick at around number seventeen overall. While this draft is deep, the chances of an eighteen-year-old's potential to make the NHL team immediately, outside the top five or so picks, are slim. Of course, the option to trade up in the draft remains. But the chances of moving into one of the top five or six spots would be really costly...and since the draft is essentially a crap-shoot, the cost would be unquantifiable until three or four years from now. That's a big risk; the kind I don't see Bob Gainey taking. So, the draft isn't the most likely avenue of solving the centre problem in the immediate future.
The second-most desirable route to take then, is signing an unrestricted free agent. That solves the problem without costing the team anything but a salary, albeit an inflated one. Ignoring for a moment the much-discussed reluctance of free agents to sign in Montreal, let's look at the list of top-ranked centres who might be available on July 1. They include Mats Sundin, Mike Cammalleri, Henrik Sedin and Saku Koivu. Outside those four, there really aren't any candidates for a number-one centre position. Cammalleri and Sedin will be the two most coveted of those, even with the built-in limitations accompanying each. Cammalleri is offensively talented but he's streaky and he's small. Sedin is known to be interested in playing on the same team as his brother, and the rumour is they want in the 6-7 million dollar range apiece. Maybe they'll manage that, but it won't be in Montreal. And Henrik on his own is an unknown quantity. Will he be able to produce without his brother? Will he disappear for long stretches as he's been known to do in the past? Sundin is Sundin. After last year, I don't know if Gainey would be interested in chasing the Indecisive One for another summer. Added to the history he now has with Montreal, Sundin is old, expensive, injury-prone and hasn't exactly been lights-out in Vancouver. If Koivu re-signs, we know what we're getting: a small, tough, injury-prone, aging player who's all heart and by all accounts a great leader. But he no longer produces at the level needed by a number-one centre, and even his feistiness can't make up for his lack of size when faced with a guy who's 6'4" on the other team. So, it appears the options are limited when it comes to acquiring a real number-one centre from this year's UFA crop.
The third choice is sending an offer sheet to a restricted free agent. Of course, this option is loaded with more pitfalls than the other two. There's the gamble that the player is worth the draft picks the team would have to give up to get him, and there's the problem of goodwill lost between GMs when one poaches another's players. Following from that, there's a risk involved in poaching if the offended GM wants revenge and finds it by offering for one of Montreal's RFAs in return. There are possibilities out there. Teams that are close to the cap may be forced to give up their RFAs if they can't move the salary they'd have to dump to match an offer. What, for example, could Boston do if someone made an offer for David Krejci? Or Phil Kessel, who can also play centre, although he's a bit small for a number one? What would Edmonton do if Gainey offered for Rob Schremp? Or the Devils if he pitched Travis Zajac? There are possibilities out there, but no one that would be guaranteed to fill the role he'd have to fill in Montreal. And, considering the risks involved in the offer sheet process, I'm not sure it would be the best way to go for the Canadiens.
So, that leaves a trade. The one half the population of Habs followers wants would be five or six assets...roster players, draft picks, prospects...for Vincent Lecavalier. I've detailed the inherent problems in that one before. They include the length and cost of Lecavalier's contract, the uncertainty about his ongoing physical health after shoulder and wrist surgeries, his interest in playing in the fishbowl that is Montreal, his production levels which seem to have peaked a couple of seasons ago and the holes that would inevitably be created in the team's fabric just to acquire him. Getting Lecavalier would be like playing a game of Whack-A-Mole: it would solve one problem, but others would pop up instead. Now there's also the public animosity between Gainey and Brian Lawton, which would make any amicable deal between the two pretty unlikely.
Assuming then that Vinny is off the radar for Montreal, Gainey must look elsewhere for a trade. In deciding whom to target, the Habs must pinpoint exactly what they need in a centre. First would be size, as the other centres, aside from Lapierre, are small. Then there's skating ability, because the Habs want to be identified as a speed-based team. Defensive awareness is important to Canadiens management, so two-way ability is necessary. Finally, like any good number-one centre, the guy must be able to put up points. Secondary considerations would include age, because the team needs someone who can fill that position for several years, and salary, because the looming cap-crunch means sensible contracts are even more important than they've been in recent years. The target also has to be someone who's tradeable by his team. In other words, it can't be a player on a team that has only one strong guy at that position because his team won't part with him and leave itself with the same needs the Habs currently have. That means it has to be a player from a team that already has a good, strong centre or two (aside from the target) on its roster and can spare the kind of guy the Habs need.
There aren't that many teams with that kind of luxury up the middle. They include Philadelphia, with Carter, Richards and Briere at centre, the Rangers with Gomez, Drury and Dubinsky and Pittsburgh with Crosby, Malkin and Staal. Philly will be capped out next year, and would clear up a lot of its problems by moving Briere. The deal could be a good value for the team that takes him, as the Flyers can't take much salary in return, and Briere's deal is a tough pill to swallow in both term and dollar value so Philly might accept less for him than they would otherwise. He's also not got the size of a Carter that would make him more ideal as a number-one centre for Montreal. Add to that the fact that Briere spurned the Habs two years ago to sign with Philly in the first place, and it might be a tough sell to bring him to Montreal now. The Rangers will also be facing cap problems, but will find it hard to move either of the big Gomez or Drury contracts, especially since neither of them has proven to be worth the money they're making in New York.
So, it comes down to Pittsburgh. Obviously, Crosby and Malkin are untouchable. But Staal could certainly be moveable because the Penguins will be facing a cap crunch of their own, and four million bucks a year is a lot for a third-line centre. Also they need good wingers. Staal's got the size Montreal needs. He's young. He's signed for four years. His salary would be more easily justified by a team using him in a more offensive role. He can kill penalties and has great defensive awareness. He wins faceoffs. And his 29-goal rookie season as an eighteen-year-old shows he can put the puck in the net. His numbers for the last couple of seasons haven't been impressive, but one should consider he's getting only about sixteen minutes of ice time per game and not much of that on the powerplay. He's also playing with third-line wingers and gets a lot of time on the PK. I think he might be a good candidate to break out for a team that makes him a number-one centre and gives him the icetime, powerplay opportunities and linemates that position would deserve.
So, if Gainey were to target Staal as a trade candidate, we must consider what they'd have to give up for him. The Pens would like to fill some of their other needs without taking on too much salary. Losing Staal would save them four million. They'd have to replace Staal as the third-line centre, but they'd also like to add a defensive defenceman and a winger or two to complement Malkin and Crosby. Looking at those needs, it's reasonable to expect the Penguins to demand a proven NHL-calibre player as the main return. That means a package of prospects probably isn't going to cut it. The Habs don't have a proven NHL in the stay-at-home D mold that doesn't cost more than Staal, so that's not going to work either. I think it must come down to a winger to play with the Big Two in Pittsburgh. It would have to be someone who can convert, someone who costs less than Staal and someone who gives back some of the threat the Pens would lose in their lineup with Staal gone. Of the Canadiens' wingers with NHL experience, only Guillaume Latendresse, Andrei Kostitsyn, Matt D'Agostini, Max Pacioretty, Greg Stewart, Georges Laraque, Chris Higgins and Sergei Kostitsyn are pretty much sure to be Habs after July 1. Of those, only Higgins or Andrei Kostitsyn would be considered to be the kind of quality player the Pens would expect for Staal. And between them, we know Kostitsyn is the better offensive player.
Depending on what the Pens are looking for in a winger, it would be reasonable to trade either Higgins or Kostitsyn for Staal, straight-up. Both Higgins and Kostitsyn are former first-round draft picks, just as Staal has been. They both have scored similar numbers of goals as Staal in their best years. And, considering Staal's numbers haven't been consistent, his value isn't as high as it might otherwise be.
And that's how I'd see the centre problem fixed.
Friday, April 24, 2009
Just a Stat
An interesting stat for those who think Saku Koivu has been a weak number-one centre, while Vincent Lecavalier is the saviour of the Montreal Canadiens:
Koivu: 792 NHL games played. 641 points scored.
Lecavalier: 787 NHL games played. 669 points scored.
Not much of a difference when you look at the numbers.
Koivu: 792 NHL games played. 641 points scored.
Lecavalier: 787 NHL games played. 669 points scored.
Not much of a difference when you look at the numbers.
WAAAAHHHHHH!
Okay. Now it's hitting me. We won't see another Habs game for SIX MONTHS. Sure, we'll have the hiring of a new coach, the draft, the signing of the Canadiens own free agents before July 1, UFA season, development camp, rookie camp and training camp before the new team takes the ice in October. But it's not the same.
For all their faults, there are very few Canadiens I'll be glad to see leave town. And I know we've seen the last games of more than one of them. I'll miss Kovalev's precision shot over the goalie's left shoulder. I'll miss Koivu's digging in the corner and coming out with the puck against guys with thirty pounds on him. I'll miss Dandenault's speed, Higgins' hustle, Tanguay's seeing-eye passes, Markov's PP set-ups, Halak's stopping forty-plus shots, Kostopoulos' "fights," Price and Gorges' funny win celebrations when the team was winning, Komisarek's shot blocking, Schneider's bomb from the point, Lapierre's energy, Plekanec's sweet passes from behind the net, Bouillon's bodychecks, Breezer's dramatic outlet pass, Kostitsyn's once-in-a-blue-moon virtuoso rushes, Laraque's smile when he lines up with the other team's goon, Hamrlik's big minutes and willingness to take on whatever the team asked of him, Metropolit's heart, Sergei's feistiness and the hopefulness of kids like D'Agostini, Pacioretty, Stewart, O'Byrne and Weber. There's something to like about every one of them.
It's going to be such a long summer for us though. I think it's worse because it's tinged with such sadness and uncertainty. Last year we were all impatient for the summer to pass and the new season to pick up where the promise of the old one left off. Now we're looking at wholesale changes in staff, the roster and possibly even the ownership. That's making it really tough to look ahead with much optimism. But, ironically, maybe that's where the optimism can be found.
Maybe if we're not expecting great things, the possibility of a pleasant surprise exists. Perhaps a return to realism after all the fairytale hype of the Centennial will mean a lot of the bandwaggoners will drop off and leave the team to supporters who don't expect a Cup just because the media tells them they should have one...and who boo when they don't get what they were told to expect. Maybe returning to normal will mean the players will smile again and their development will get back on track after the derailment of this awful season. Hey...I guess there's hope after all. Bring on the draft!
For all their faults, there are very few Canadiens I'll be glad to see leave town. And I know we've seen the last games of more than one of them. I'll miss Kovalev's precision shot over the goalie's left shoulder. I'll miss Koivu's digging in the corner and coming out with the puck against guys with thirty pounds on him. I'll miss Dandenault's speed, Higgins' hustle, Tanguay's seeing-eye passes, Markov's PP set-ups, Halak's stopping forty-plus shots, Kostopoulos' "fights," Price and Gorges' funny win celebrations when the team was winning, Komisarek's shot blocking, Schneider's bomb from the point, Lapierre's energy, Plekanec's sweet passes from behind the net, Bouillon's bodychecks, Breezer's dramatic outlet pass, Kostitsyn's once-in-a-blue-moon virtuoso rushes, Laraque's smile when he lines up with the other team's goon, Hamrlik's big minutes and willingness to take on whatever the team asked of him, Metropolit's heart, Sergei's feistiness and the hopefulness of kids like D'Agostini, Pacioretty, Stewart, O'Byrne and Weber. There's something to like about every one of them.
It's going to be such a long summer for us though. I think it's worse because it's tinged with such sadness and uncertainty. Last year we were all impatient for the summer to pass and the new season to pick up where the promise of the old one left off. Now we're looking at wholesale changes in staff, the roster and possibly even the ownership. That's making it really tough to look ahead with much optimism. But, ironically, maybe that's where the optimism can be found.
Maybe if we're not expecting great things, the possibility of a pleasant surprise exists. Perhaps a return to realism after all the fairytale hype of the Centennial will mean a lot of the bandwaggoners will drop off and leave the team to supporters who don't expect a Cup just because the media tells them they should have one...and who boo when they don't get what they were told to expect. Maybe returning to normal will mean the players will smile again and their development will get back on track after the derailment of this awful season. Hey...I guess there's hope after all. Bring on the draft!
Thursday, April 23, 2009
And Now, the End Is Near...
As the Habs face the final curtain, I don't know whether to be saddened or relieved by the coup de grace the Bs are about to deliver to the bloody, doomed, ill-conceived, egotistical, arrogant Centennial season. When the number of things that have gone wrong this year go wrong...well, you have to think there's a greater force than Bob Gainey at work here. Somebody's trying to tell us something. And that something may just be, "Get your self-congratulatory heads out of the past and shut up about glory until there's an actual chance to experience glory again before the twentieth anniversary of the last Cup rolls around." I don't have any hope the Habs can pull off a miracle and win the next four games, despite what our good Captain says about anything being possible. I don't really have any hope they can win even this fourth game and salvage some small measure of dignity. BUT, I am not without hope altogether. Here are the top ten things I hope for, as the seasons turn from hockey spring to hockey summer for us:
10. Bob Gainey stays. Or, at least doesn't make a hasty decision to leave based on his disillusionment this season. I think Gainey won't be fired, so the decision will be his own. There's no question he's made a lot of mistakes (Ribeiro, Streit, etc.). But he's also made some very good decisions (Lang, Tanguay, Rivet, etc.). Who among us were expecting this year's results when we looked at the projected lineup in September? Sure, the Big Bald Swede chose Vancouver, but Gainey's second choice of Robert Lang turned out to be inspired. And, sure, maybe the team was short a top-four D-man from the get-go, but we all thought that would be a handicap in the third or fourth round of the playoffs...not in making the playoffs at all. Gainey made a hell of a good stab at putting together a contender this year, only to have it injured into extinction. For those who think he should have made a desperation trade at the deadline for a Lang replacement, I defend him because I think he realized there's a balance between going all-in and saving something for later. He'd already traded a first, three seconds and a third-round draft pick for Lang, Tanguay and Schneider. Seller teams at the deadline want draft picks and futures, and Gainey had already reached his limit of what he was prepared to part with in the none-too-guaranteed pursuit of a Centennial Cup. He goes into the off-season now with a lot of contracts expired and the potential to give the team a dramatic facelift, and I'm willing to give him the chance to try.
9. A low-key draft. The last big event of the cursed Centennial is the draft in June, to be held at the Bell Centre. Honestly, if they make a big, black-and-white-video splash, trotting out Jean Beliveau to open the thing, sending out invitations with Centennial stamps and holding a Hall-of-Fame dinner in Centennial Square, I'll barf. I just want them to respectfully welcome everyone to the draft and let the picking begin. Enough with the glorious past, which is just mocked by the pathetic present. Unless, of course, they can reunite all the remaining first-rounders of the glorious past, like Ray Martyniuk, Robin Sadler, Rod Schutt, Jan Ingman and Mark Pederson. Then, there could be the "We Drafted French" category, featuring such luminaries as Alain Heroux, Alfie Turcotte, Jose Charbonneau, Eric Charron and Eric Chouinard. That could be followed by the "We Drafted Big" display, with special appearances by Lindsay Vallis, Turner Stevenson, Brent Bilodeau, David Wilkie, Brad Brown, Terry Ryan, Matt Higgins and Jason Ward. The special ceremony could be introduced by former first-rounder Rejean Houle and conclude with a video trubute to Doug Wickenheiser. Hey...on second thought, maybe a Draft Retrospective would be in order after all, if only to teach the organization a little humility.
8. A successful draft. I'm not a nember of the Church of Trevor Timmins. I think Timmins has done a fine job restocking what had been a pretty bare farm system since his arrival in 2003. The team has lots of solid, if unspectacular, prospects, as is evidenced by the Bulldogs' Calder Cup win two years ago. And seeing guys like Jaro Halak, Carey Price, Andrei Kostitsyn, Maxim Lapierre and Guillaume Latendresse already cemented in the NHL lineup, with others like Greg Stewart, Matt D'Agostini, Max Pacioretty, Ryan O'Byrne and Yannick Weber getting time and looking like possible regulars next season, you can't deny Timmins can spot NHL potential. My beef with him is that he doesn't seem able to land a stud...a real first-line, top-D kind of player. His first-rounders just aren't that impressive for the most part. Perhaps it has to do with his "best player available" strategy instead of drafting for organizational need. I know the thinking behind the BPA strategy is that the need today might not be the need in three or four years when that player is NHL-ready. But let's get serious: the Habs have been looking for a number-one centre for years and there's still not one in the system, with all due respect to Ben Maxwell. It's no secret it's tough for scouts to land a blue-chipper when a team is consistently finishing in the middle of the draft order. But Timmins had the number-ten overall pick in one of the deepest drafts in history in 2003, and the number-five overall pick in 2005. Talented franchise centres who went in those drafts AFTER the Habs chose Andrei Kostitsyn and Carey Price, respectively, include Jeff Carter, Ryan Getzlaf, Zach Parise, Mike Richards and Anze Kopitar. This year, in another deep draft, the Habs will probably pick around number 17. It's not the best position, admittedly, but there are good players to be had. I hope if there's a stud there when the Habs pick, Timmins will finally recognize it and choose someone other than a Mr.Hockey winner who spends the next four years at a US college and then never really pans out.
7. Smart management of contracts. Everyone knows the cap is going down in the next couple of years. That likely means smart GMs won't be throwing stupid money and long term at mid-range free agents like they did in the good old Drury/Gomez/Briere/Smyth days. And it means there will be teams that get capped out pretty quickly because they did pay stupid money and long-term for those mid-range guys and now can't get rid of them. The Habs face this off-season with a raft of unrestricted free agents and several underperforming restricted ones. That frees up a ton of money and opens a lot of possibilities for roster changes. I don't believe guys like Tomas Plekanec and Chris Higgins are done based on their lousy seasons this year. Their numbers will help get them re-signed for cheap and save money for the eternal struggle to land a star.
6. A good trade. I specify "good" here because I do NOT want to see assets and futures traded to acquire a certain albatross contract attached to a certain physically-uncertain francophone saviour out of Tampa Bay. For me, a good trade would be a sensible package to Pittsburgh for Jordan Staal. He's the big, talented centre the Habs need, and he's signed for four years at four million per. Admittedly, his numbers haven't been top-shelf since his 29-goal rookie season. But you have to remember he's playing the third-line centre role behind Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. Also, the Pens have had trouble icing enough decent wingers to play with all their good centres. Based on their overabundance down the middle and their potential cap issues with all the big contracts they already have, I think Staal's moveable, and I think the Habs should be first in line.
5. The renaissance of Carey Price. This must happen. The Canadiens invested their highest draft pick in years in him, when they could have spent it on the centre they needed, or on a big, talented D like Marc Staal. If Price turns out to be unreliable, it will set the organization back years. So, I hope he goes home and has a good talk with his parents, clears his head and comes back a more mature, focussed human being and a more consistent goalie.
4. The hiring of a good, experienced coach. This is something the Habs have been lacking for years because of the "need" to hire a francophone. I think it would be great to have a guy who speaks both official languages, but I don't want to see the team limit its choices because language is a priority. I've had enough with the rookie coaches who use the Habs to learn their way through the NHL, then end up doing well elsewhere. The Habs shouldn't be Coaching Kindergarten anymore, even if it means the new guy speaks only English. The team needs someone with experience, a system and a track record of winning.
3. Ownership stability. I like George Gillett's ownership. He cheers for the team, but keeps his nose out of the hockey management side of things. And he's not been cheap with Gainey either. There's speculation now that he might be able to unload his expensive half-share of the Liverpool FC, which would prevent his having to ditch the Habs to refinance his loans. I'd like to see Gillett continue as owner, because I'm not sure any of the alternatives I've heard mentioned would be the best thing for the team.
2. Weeding out of "bad apples." When Guy Carbonneau left his final press conference, he said he'd be happy to speak with Bob Gainey about "bad apples" on the team over the summer. I hope if there really are bad apples they're removed immediately, regardless of the amount of talent they may possess. It's better to have a close team than a scattered, more talented one.
And the number one thing I hope for as this season comes to an end:
1. Fun. This was a real "team" last year. I mean a team whose players stood up for each other, who genuinely liked each other and played hard for the love of the game and the team. I think the Habs did the right thing by rebuilding from the inside with guys who know no other city or team and whose loyalties aren't divided. The first players from that rebuild are now the young, homegrown veterans that should be taking over and leading the way. So, I hope that whatever happened this year to derail what looked like a promising team development was just an aberration. I hope the team can put this year away and pick up where they left off last year. Last year was fun. This year has been anything but. I can stand losing. I can stand disappointment. But I can't take another season of absolutely no fun. So, here's to better days ahead and a few hopes finally coming true as the long wait for a new season begins.
10. Bob Gainey stays. Or, at least doesn't make a hasty decision to leave based on his disillusionment this season. I think Gainey won't be fired, so the decision will be his own. There's no question he's made a lot of mistakes (Ribeiro, Streit, etc.). But he's also made some very good decisions (Lang, Tanguay, Rivet, etc.). Who among us were expecting this year's results when we looked at the projected lineup in September? Sure, the Big Bald Swede chose Vancouver, but Gainey's second choice of Robert Lang turned out to be inspired. And, sure, maybe the team was short a top-four D-man from the get-go, but we all thought that would be a handicap in the third or fourth round of the playoffs...not in making the playoffs at all. Gainey made a hell of a good stab at putting together a contender this year, only to have it injured into extinction. For those who think he should have made a desperation trade at the deadline for a Lang replacement, I defend him because I think he realized there's a balance between going all-in and saving something for later. He'd already traded a first, three seconds and a third-round draft pick for Lang, Tanguay and Schneider. Seller teams at the deadline want draft picks and futures, and Gainey had already reached his limit of what he was prepared to part with in the none-too-guaranteed pursuit of a Centennial Cup. He goes into the off-season now with a lot of contracts expired and the potential to give the team a dramatic facelift, and I'm willing to give him the chance to try.
9. A low-key draft. The last big event of the cursed Centennial is the draft in June, to be held at the Bell Centre. Honestly, if they make a big, black-and-white-video splash, trotting out Jean Beliveau to open the thing, sending out invitations with Centennial stamps and holding a Hall-of-Fame dinner in Centennial Square, I'll barf. I just want them to respectfully welcome everyone to the draft and let the picking begin. Enough with the glorious past, which is just mocked by the pathetic present. Unless, of course, they can reunite all the remaining first-rounders of the glorious past, like Ray Martyniuk, Robin Sadler, Rod Schutt, Jan Ingman and Mark Pederson. Then, there could be the "We Drafted French" category, featuring such luminaries as Alain Heroux, Alfie Turcotte, Jose Charbonneau, Eric Charron and Eric Chouinard. That could be followed by the "We Drafted Big" display, with special appearances by Lindsay Vallis, Turner Stevenson, Brent Bilodeau, David Wilkie, Brad Brown, Terry Ryan, Matt Higgins and Jason Ward. The special ceremony could be introduced by former first-rounder Rejean Houle and conclude with a video trubute to Doug Wickenheiser. Hey...on second thought, maybe a Draft Retrospective would be in order after all, if only to teach the organization a little humility.
8. A successful draft. I'm not a nember of the Church of Trevor Timmins. I think Timmins has done a fine job restocking what had been a pretty bare farm system since his arrival in 2003. The team has lots of solid, if unspectacular, prospects, as is evidenced by the Bulldogs' Calder Cup win two years ago. And seeing guys like Jaro Halak, Carey Price, Andrei Kostitsyn, Maxim Lapierre and Guillaume Latendresse already cemented in the NHL lineup, with others like Greg Stewart, Matt D'Agostini, Max Pacioretty, Ryan O'Byrne and Yannick Weber getting time and looking like possible regulars next season, you can't deny Timmins can spot NHL potential. My beef with him is that he doesn't seem able to land a stud...a real first-line, top-D kind of player. His first-rounders just aren't that impressive for the most part. Perhaps it has to do with his "best player available" strategy instead of drafting for organizational need. I know the thinking behind the BPA strategy is that the need today might not be the need in three or four years when that player is NHL-ready. But let's get serious: the Habs have been looking for a number-one centre for years and there's still not one in the system, with all due respect to Ben Maxwell. It's no secret it's tough for scouts to land a blue-chipper when a team is consistently finishing in the middle of the draft order. But Timmins had the number-ten overall pick in one of the deepest drafts in history in 2003, and the number-five overall pick in 2005. Talented franchise centres who went in those drafts AFTER the Habs chose Andrei Kostitsyn and Carey Price, respectively, include Jeff Carter, Ryan Getzlaf, Zach Parise, Mike Richards and Anze Kopitar. This year, in another deep draft, the Habs will probably pick around number 17. It's not the best position, admittedly, but there are good players to be had. I hope if there's a stud there when the Habs pick, Timmins will finally recognize it and choose someone other than a Mr.Hockey winner who spends the next four years at a US college and then never really pans out.
7. Smart management of contracts. Everyone knows the cap is going down in the next couple of years. That likely means smart GMs won't be throwing stupid money and long term at mid-range free agents like they did in the good old Drury/Gomez/Briere/Smyth days. And it means there will be teams that get capped out pretty quickly because they did pay stupid money and long-term for those mid-range guys and now can't get rid of them. The Habs face this off-season with a raft of unrestricted free agents and several underperforming restricted ones. That frees up a ton of money and opens a lot of possibilities for roster changes. I don't believe guys like Tomas Plekanec and Chris Higgins are done based on their lousy seasons this year. Their numbers will help get them re-signed for cheap and save money for the eternal struggle to land a star.
6. A good trade. I specify "good" here because I do NOT want to see assets and futures traded to acquire a certain albatross contract attached to a certain physically-uncertain francophone saviour out of Tampa Bay. For me, a good trade would be a sensible package to Pittsburgh for Jordan Staal. He's the big, talented centre the Habs need, and he's signed for four years at four million per. Admittedly, his numbers haven't been top-shelf since his 29-goal rookie season. But you have to remember he's playing the third-line centre role behind Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. Also, the Pens have had trouble icing enough decent wingers to play with all their good centres. Based on their overabundance down the middle and their potential cap issues with all the big contracts they already have, I think Staal's moveable, and I think the Habs should be first in line.
5. The renaissance of Carey Price. This must happen. The Canadiens invested their highest draft pick in years in him, when they could have spent it on the centre they needed, or on a big, talented D like Marc Staal. If Price turns out to be unreliable, it will set the organization back years. So, I hope he goes home and has a good talk with his parents, clears his head and comes back a more mature, focussed human being and a more consistent goalie.
4. The hiring of a good, experienced coach. This is something the Habs have been lacking for years because of the "need" to hire a francophone. I think it would be great to have a guy who speaks both official languages, but I don't want to see the team limit its choices because language is a priority. I've had enough with the rookie coaches who use the Habs to learn their way through the NHL, then end up doing well elsewhere. The Habs shouldn't be Coaching Kindergarten anymore, even if it means the new guy speaks only English. The team needs someone with experience, a system and a track record of winning.
3. Ownership stability. I like George Gillett's ownership. He cheers for the team, but keeps his nose out of the hockey management side of things. And he's not been cheap with Gainey either. There's speculation now that he might be able to unload his expensive half-share of the Liverpool FC, which would prevent his having to ditch the Habs to refinance his loans. I'd like to see Gillett continue as owner, because I'm not sure any of the alternatives I've heard mentioned would be the best thing for the team.
2. Weeding out of "bad apples." When Guy Carbonneau left his final press conference, he said he'd be happy to speak with Bob Gainey about "bad apples" on the team over the summer. I hope if there really are bad apples they're removed immediately, regardless of the amount of talent they may possess. It's better to have a close team than a scattered, more talented one.
And the number one thing I hope for as this season comes to an end:
1. Fun. This was a real "team" last year. I mean a team whose players stood up for each other, who genuinely liked each other and played hard for the love of the game and the team. I think the Habs did the right thing by rebuilding from the inside with guys who know no other city or team and whose loyalties aren't divided. The first players from that rebuild are now the young, homegrown veterans that should be taking over and leading the way. So, I hope that whatever happened this year to derail what looked like a promising team development was just an aberration. I hope the team can put this year away and pick up where they left off last year. Last year was fun. This year has been anything but. I can stand losing. I can stand disappointment. But I can't take another season of absolutely no fun. So, here's to better days ahead and a few hopes finally coming true as the long wait for a new season begins.
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