Notes on the third:
-Deboer looks like he's aged forty years since last season.
-Eller's gonna be good one day. Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but soon, and for the rest of our lives.
-AND just as I write that, he deflects Moen's cross-ice pass for a beauty.
-Gio was a bit of a pig on that 3-on-1.
-Great! The ref's got feedback on his newfangled mic, so he just makes the sign, blows the whistle and damn the torpedoes.
-One would hope the posts accumulated by AK and Pax will count for goals in the playoffs, in the grand scheme of equality.
-Way to go Price! Another shutout puck for the bums.
Notes on the second:
-Wondering what all the shiny dots in the crowd were, and finally figured out they're the reflective number plates on the fronts of all the flipped-up, empty seats.
-Not much of a PP. At least the Knife let P.K. out on it for once.
-I wish Picard was better. He's the kind of guy you like and root for, but he's just not got the talent to stick around.
-DD! LOVE that kid. He's literally up to Gill's elbow.
-Uh oh...Pax looks hurt. It's great that he goes to the net, but it's not great that he keeps getting beaned once he's there. Looks like he got that one in the Top Secret zone.
-It's great that Pouliot's got a 100mph+ shot, but it doesn't count unless it's on the net.
-Price is sharp as clam shells in a game that could put him to sleep if he isn't careful.
-Good, tight period. One more, guys!
Notes on the first:
-There should be absolutely no reason to lose this game. The Panthers are tanking and the Habs are icing the team that will start the playoffs for them. Cue disaster.
-Price has wised up since the demise of Gorges. He now just whacks the puck out of the zone, every chance he gets.
-Awesome. A dumb penalty against FLORIDA. Way to go, P.K.
-SKILLSIE! Please, NHL, don't say it went in off Gomez' skate. The big man needs a goal.
-Plekanec, in the midst of defensive-zone confusion, is like an oasis in the desert.
-Can't help feeling the Habs should be dominating this game more. These guys aren't the Flyers, after all.
-Way to go, Kush...two points tonight already. He's celebrating his liberation from Camp Gomez.
-Habs really need to tighten up a bit. Passing should be more accurate and defensive coverage more precise. This is a practice game.
Thursday, March 3, 2011
Wednesday, March 2, 2011
Aftermath: Discipline
The Montreal Canadiens rank second in the NHL in a very telling category. They trail only the Pittsburgh Penguins in the number of candyass, lazy minor penalties they've taken this year, with a grand total of 285 as of last night. Included in that number are a league-leading 12 bench minors; the kinds of penalties that reveal a team's disorganization and indiscipline. In comparison, top contenders Detroit and Philly have just two bench minors apiece.
Some will argue the Canadiens take so many minors because they're small and use their sticks to compensate, or because they don't forecheck hard enough to force the other team into taking penalties. While there may be an element of truth to that against some teams, in reality, a lot of the penalties they take are out of pure carelessness or stupidity. Last night, for example, the Habs took another two too-many-men penalties, as well as a delay-of-game and two minors while on the power play.
The problem with taking stupid minors is the way they influence every other aspect of a team's game plan. Take last night. The first too-many-men call came less than two minutes into the first period. At that point, any inclination Jacques Martin might have had to roll four lines had to be put on hold as the PKers took over for two minutes. They killed that off and started to build some momentum when Plekanec took a questionable interference call and put his team back on the defensive. Again, they killed it off and when they got rolling afterwards, they were rewarded by Max Pacioretty's goal.
Unfortunately, every time they'd build momentum with a good push or a PP, they'd scuttle their own chances with a dumb penalty. The time in the box meant P.K.Subban had to spend more than four minutes on the PK and only 0:25 on the PP. It meant less ice time for Andrei Kostitsyn, Benoit Pouliot, James Wizniewski and Pacioretty, who didn't kill penalties. Of course, they're also players with a better chance to score than PKers like Travis Moen and Hal Gill, so the penalties cut down on the Canadiens' offensive opportunities as well. And it meant Atlanta always had a chance to take over the game with a timely PP goal, or a goal scored off the momentum they built every time the Habs shot themselves in the proverbial foot.
It's a good thing the goaltender is often a team's best penalty killer. Carey Price was sharp as a north wind all night, and saved us from a bunch of dressing room cliches about how lack of discipline cost them the game. The kid is the Canadiens' MVP this year, by a mile, and he deserves every bit of applause and every grudging nod of approval he gets. If not for his solid play...make no mistake about it...we would be listening to those post-loss excuses today. In the wake of a quiet deadline day, the bellyaching of the Gauthier haters would have been pretty much unbearable if that had happened.
Going forward, though, the Habs have got to be more disciplined. They escaped with a win last night, despite their flirting with penalty-induced disaster. In the playoffs, assuming the team qualifies, games are decided on special teams. If the Canadiens are in the habit of handing out free opportunities in the post-season, they won't last long. They're not the kind of team that can score at will, so a PP goal scored off a dumb penalty is often enough to bury them. They need to develop better habits now, so they're playing much smarter when it really matters.
Staying out of the box means all four lines can get some flow going, the ice time is better distributed among the defencemen and the team has a chance to build momentum. With the challenges the Canadiens are facing on the injury front, they have to give themselves every advantage they can get. There's nothing they can do about how small they are, or their speed on the blueline, but they can control their own behaviour. They must.
Some will argue the Canadiens take so many minors because they're small and use their sticks to compensate, or because they don't forecheck hard enough to force the other team into taking penalties. While there may be an element of truth to that against some teams, in reality, a lot of the penalties they take are out of pure carelessness or stupidity. Last night, for example, the Habs took another two too-many-men penalties, as well as a delay-of-game and two minors while on the power play.
The problem with taking stupid minors is the way they influence every other aspect of a team's game plan. Take last night. The first too-many-men call came less than two minutes into the first period. At that point, any inclination Jacques Martin might have had to roll four lines had to be put on hold as the PKers took over for two minutes. They killed that off and started to build some momentum when Plekanec took a questionable interference call and put his team back on the defensive. Again, they killed it off and when they got rolling afterwards, they were rewarded by Max Pacioretty's goal.
Unfortunately, every time they'd build momentum with a good push or a PP, they'd scuttle their own chances with a dumb penalty. The time in the box meant P.K.Subban had to spend more than four minutes on the PK and only 0:25 on the PP. It meant less ice time for Andrei Kostitsyn, Benoit Pouliot, James Wizniewski and Pacioretty, who didn't kill penalties. Of course, they're also players with a better chance to score than PKers like Travis Moen and Hal Gill, so the penalties cut down on the Canadiens' offensive opportunities as well. And it meant Atlanta always had a chance to take over the game with a timely PP goal, or a goal scored off the momentum they built every time the Habs shot themselves in the proverbial foot.
It's a good thing the goaltender is often a team's best penalty killer. Carey Price was sharp as a north wind all night, and saved us from a bunch of dressing room cliches about how lack of discipline cost them the game. The kid is the Canadiens' MVP this year, by a mile, and he deserves every bit of applause and every grudging nod of approval he gets. If not for his solid play...make no mistake about it...we would be listening to those post-loss excuses today. In the wake of a quiet deadline day, the bellyaching of the Gauthier haters would have been pretty much unbearable if that had happened.
Going forward, though, the Habs have got to be more disciplined. They escaped with a win last night, despite their flirting with penalty-induced disaster. In the playoffs, assuming the team qualifies, games are decided on special teams. If the Canadiens are in the habit of handing out free opportunities in the post-season, they won't last long. They're not the kind of team that can score at will, so a PP goal scored off a dumb penalty is often enough to bury them. They need to develop better habits now, so they're playing much smarter when it really matters.
Staying out of the box means all four lines can get some flow going, the ice time is better distributed among the defencemen and the team has a chance to build momentum. With the challenges the Canadiens are facing on the injury front, they have to give themselves every advantage they can get. There's nothing they can do about how small they are, or their speed on the blueline, but they can control their own behaviour. They must.
Tuesday, March 1, 2011
Habs vs.Thrashers - Stretch Run Edition
Notes on the third:
-Pouliot has a lot of pluses, but passing isn't really one of them.
-Hamrlik reminds me of Sam McGee in the crematorium...sitting cool and calm in the heart of the furnace roar.
-AK hits like a V-1 rocket.
-Next time the Thrashers sell off all their assets except Kane, I'd love the Habs to get Stewart.
-If Desharnais' hands were any silkier, they'd have to sew them into ladies' undergarments.
-Gill's stick is so long, it enters the TV frame half a second before he does.
-Oh! Pacioretty converts on that breakaway, and we can breathe.
-Ugh. Sergio Momesso is blaming poor Gomez coverage for the Thrashers goal, but that was on Sopel. He forgot which team he was playing for and made a soft pass up the middle for a surefire interception.
-When the Habs start waving at the puck more often than the Queen waves on a walkabout, they're in trouble.
-Clever! The arena people have recorded a "Let's Go Thrashers" chant and play it over the sound system.
-Gio burned up the engine on re-entry for that EN goal. Good for him. I don't remember the Habs potting one of those very often.
Notes on the second:
-Nice dirty little PP goal. DD's so good in those situations, and AK made a sweet pass for Wisniewski.
-Another too-many-men? They must be having a sale.
-Price has got to give up the baseball. That's the second DOG penalty he's taken in a week.
-As Murray Wilson used to say, there's lots of reaching going on here. Sticks waving at pucks instead of bodies hitting puck carriers. That'll come back to bite them.
-As will the parade of idiotc penalties.
-Price is quicker than rabbits.
-Gionta versus Byfuglien is a bigger mismatch than Madonna and Messier.
-Amazing. How on earth did Cammalleri miss that chance at the end? That would have been nice.
Notes on the first:
-Too many men. Habs must have enough to start a shop by now.
-Evander Kane is the kind of guy the Habs will get at the trade deadline in a dozen years, after he's become a "solid, Cup-winning veteran with one more run in the tank."
-Price handles the puck better than half his defence.
-Gill takes his helmet off and settles in on the bench to watch the PP. Not that it's much of a show.
-Mara hit Dvorak so hard, he almost drove him into the playoffs.
-Not really enjoying the Plekanec yapping every time he gets called. He should save it for the *really* egregious calls.
-Must be nice to walk into an NHL hockey rink and be guaranteed your choice of seat.
-Great point shot by Pax. Might be something to keep in mind on the PP.
-Gomez must have a wheel out of alignment. Maybe that's why he always drifts left.
-You know what'd be a cool stat? Kilometers skated per game. Pleks'd be halfway home to Kladno by now.
-Poor Hammer. Kane danced him around like a marionette.
-Oh, you could just see the stupid crosscheck on Hamrlik coming after he let the puck go after the horn. Hope this doesn't turn into a crap fest.
-Pouliot has a lot of pluses, but passing isn't really one of them.
-Hamrlik reminds me of Sam McGee in the crematorium...sitting cool and calm in the heart of the furnace roar.
-AK hits like a V-1 rocket.
-Next time the Thrashers sell off all their assets except Kane, I'd love the Habs to get Stewart.
-If Desharnais' hands were any silkier, they'd have to sew them into ladies' undergarments.
-Gill's stick is so long, it enters the TV frame half a second before he does.
-Oh! Pacioretty converts on that breakaway, and we can breathe.
-Ugh. Sergio Momesso is blaming poor Gomez coverage for the Thrashers goal, but that was on Sopel. He forgot which team he was playing for and made a soft pass up the middle for a surefire interception.
-When the Habs start waving at the puck more often than the Queen waves on a walkabout, they're in trouble.
-Clever! The arena people have recorded a "Let's Go Thrashers" chant and play it over the sound system.
-Gio burned up the engine on re-entry for that EN goal. Good for him. I don't remember the Habs potting one of those very often.
Notes on the second:
-Nice dirty little PP goal. DD's so good in those situations, and AK made a sweet pass for Wisniewski.
-Another too-many-men? They must be having a sale.
-Price has got to give up the baseball. That's the second DOG penalty he's taken in a week.
-As Murray Wilson used to say, there's lots of reaching going on here. Sticks waving at pucks instead of bodies hitting puck carriers. That'll come back to bite them.
-As will the parade of idiotc penalties.
-Price is quicker than rabbits.
-Gionta versus Byfuglien is a bigger mismatch than Madonna and Messier.
-Amazing. How on earth did Cammalleri miss that chance at the end? That would have been nice.
Notes on the first:
-Too many men. Habs must have enough to start a shop by now.
-Evander Kane is the kind of guy the Habs will get at the trade deadline in a dozen years, after he's become a "solid, Cup-winning veteran with one more run in the tank."
-Price handles the puck better than half his defence.
-Gill takes his helmet off and settles in on the bench to watch the PP. Not that it's much of a show.
-Mara hit Dvorak so hard, he almost drove him into the playoffs.
-Not really enjoying the Plekanec yapping every time he gets called. He should save it for the *really* egregious calls.
-Must be nice to walk into an NHL hockey rink and be guaranteed your choice of seat.
-Great point shot by Pax. Might be something to keep in mind on the PP.
-Gomez must have a wheel out of alignment. Maybe that's why he always drifts left.
-You know what'd be a cool stat? Kilometers skated per game. Pleks'd be halfway home to Kladno by now.
-Poor Hammer. Kane danced him around like a marionette.
-Oh, you could just see the stupid crosscheck on Hamrlik coming after he let the puck go after the horn. Hope this doesn't turn into a crap fest.
Lost in Translation
Another trade deadline day has come and gone, and now it's time to analyse where teams line up for the playoffs, and what might be their chances of using their new acquisitions to help them win the Stanley Cup. A few of the Canadiens have given us their thoughts in the wake of the deadline non-frenzy. Sometimes, though, if you don't speak hockey babble, it might be tough to pick through the cliches for some real meaning. So, with the intention of making it easier for you, the fan, to understand what the Habs think of their position post-trade deadline, here are some of their statements, followed by hockey babble translation.
Pierre Gauthier:
We've made a lot of changes this year because of injuries to the defencemen. I feel like the guy who saves all his vacation time and all his money to go on a nice holiday in the summer, then he notices his roof is leaking, so he has to spend all his money and the whole summer fixing the roof. We probably were in a position early in the year when we had accumulated assets and some financial resources to see as things went along if we could do something to improve the club. Instead, we ended up patching things along the way.
Translation:
Sorry fans. We thought this might be the year when we might actually be able to do something noteworthy. We had a couple of second rounders and some guys we thought we could move, like Maxwell and Lapierre. But all the blown knees on defence meant we had to toss out our big plans for improving and buy enough useable parts to keep us in the playoff picture. I could have thrown in the towel and traded a bunch of guys for picks and prospects for next year, but Mr.Molson would have killed me.
Mr.Sopel has won a Stanley Cup as recently as last year, and he's an experienced person who will bring some good leadership to our group.
Translation:
Yeah, he's another placeholding geezer, but this one's actually played for a good team in recent memory, so maybe some of that will rub off on some of the rest of these guys.
There were probably some (deals). It depends on how much you want to pay.
Translation:
We're broke. Outside of the couple of first-round prospects we've got left, nobody wanted anything else we had to offer. It's a yard sale in a trailer park around here.
It's very easy not to like your players. You see them all the time. They all have their pluses and minuses. But we see a lot of what's going on around the league and we see how the other teams perform. And I'm sure they feel the same way sometimes about their players.
Translation:
Yes. Gomez has been sucking out loud, but we're stuck with him. Hey, at least he's not Souray, am I right?
Mr.Spacek has been reevaluated by the doctors today, and we will give you some more news in the next hours or days.
Translation:
Spatcho could be having his leg amputated later this afternoon, but next week I will tell you he's got a lower-body injury and his return is undetermined.
We just got Mr.Cammalleri back. That's a strong addition to our team.
Translation:
Cammalleri had better light it up like New Year's Eve, or we're probably screwed.
Brian Gionta:
All the guys are comfortable with the team we have. When we play the way we can, we're a tough team to beat.
Translation:
Sucks we didn't get somebody to keep Chara off my ass. Oh well, I guess it's back to eating rubber and elbows every night for another playoff season.
P.K. Subban:
We've always been a confident bunch in here, and we've beat some of the best teams...you look at last year, and we've got the same core of guys we had last year. I know there's some injuries, some veteran and key parts of our team aren't in the lineup, but we've had guys stepping up all year to help us.
Translation:
Man, I hope I don't sound like I have an opinion. Everyone hates it when I do that. Do I say "confident?" No, better not...they'll say I meant "cocky." Oh, damn, it slipped out. Okay...focus on the other guys. Credit to the veterans...credit to the veterans.
Hal Gill:
I like our team. We've worked a lot on coming together. We're gonna go out and win with the guys we got.
Translation:
I block shots with Crosby; I block 'em with Gionta. Makes no never mind to me. It'd be nice if these guys could pull a miracle out of their ass, though. We had some fun last year.
Scott Gomez:
We're confident in this group. We believe in it. We like the makeup of our team. If we can get better, that's obviously our goal. We all get along here. It's a great group of guys with a good vibe in the room. It's a close-knit group. We're going to get as far as we can.
Translation:
Whew. Thought someone might take my contract for a while there. Ha ha. Anyway, nobody here gives me a hard time, so it's nice. We'll have some fun in April, but don't hold your breath, fans.
There you go. Post-deadline comments translated for your reading pleasure. The Canadiens will undoubtedly do their best to make the playoffs and advance in them, but they will be hard-pressed to do so. Just as Gauthier was hard-pressed to turn a lack of expendable assets into concrete help. All we can do is support the team and hang on for the ride.
Pierre Gauthier:
We've made a lot of changes this year because of injuries to the defencemen. I feel like the guy who saves all his vacation time and all his money to go on a nice holiday in the summer, then he notices his roof is leaking, so he has to spend all his money and the whole summer fixing the roof. We probably were in a position early in the year when we had accumulated assets and some financial resources to see as things went along if we could do something to improve the club. Instead, we ended up patching things along the way.
Translation:
Sorry fans. We thought this might be the year when we might actually be able to do something noteworthy. We had a couple of second rounders and some guys we thought we could move, like Maxwell and Lapierre. But all the blown knees on defence meant we had to toss out our big plans for improving and buy enough useable parts to keep us in the playoff picture. I could have thrown in the towel and traded a bunch of guys for picks and prospects for next year, but Mr.Molson would have killed me.
Mr.Sopel has won a Stanley Cup as recently as last year, and he's an experienced person who will bring some good leadership to our group.
Translation:
Yeah, he's another placeholding geezer, but this one's actually played for a good team in recent memory, so maybe some of that will rub off on some of the rest of these guys.
There were probably some (deals). It depends on how much you want to pay.
Translation:
We're broke. Outside of the couple of first-round prospects we've got left, nobody wanted anything else we had to offer. It's a yard sale in a trailer park around here.
It's very easy not to like your players. You see them all the time. They all have their pluses and minuses. But we see a lot of what's going on around the league and we see how the other teams perform. And I'm sure they feel the same way sometimes about their players.
Translation:
Yes. Gomez has been sucking out loud, but we're stuck with him. Hey, at least he's not Souray, am I right?
Mr.Spacek has been reevaluated by the doctors today, and we will give you some more news in the next hours or days.
Translation:
Spatcho could be having his leg amputated later this afternoon, but next week I will tell you he's got a lower-body injury and his return is undetermined.
We just got Mr.Cammalleri back. That's a strong addition to our team.
Translation:
Cammalleri had better light it up like New Year's Eve, or we're probably screwed.
Brian Gionta:
All the guys are comfortable with the team we have. When we play the way we can, we're a tough team to beat.
Translation:
Sucks we didn't get somebody to keep Chara off my ass. Oh well, I guess it's back to eating rubber and elbows every night for another playoff season.
P.K. Subban:
We've always been a confident bunch in here, and we've beat some of the best teams...you look at last year, and we've got the same core of guys we had last year. I know there's some injuries, some veteran and key parts of our team aren't in the lineup, but we've had guys stepping up all year to help us.
Translation:
Man, I hope I don't sound like I have an opinion. Everyone hates it when I do that. Do I say "confident?" No, better not...they'll say I meant "cocky." Oh, damn, it slipped out. Okay...focus on the other guys. Credit to the veterans...credit to the veterans.
Hal Gill:
I like our team. We've worked a lot on coming together. We're gonna go out and win with the guys we got.
Translation:
I block shots with Crosby; I block 'em with Gionta. Makes no never mind to me. It'd be nice if these guys could pull a miracle out of their ass, though. We had some fun last year.
Scott Gomez:
We're confident in this group. We believe in it. We like the makeup of our team. If we can get better, that's obviously our goal. We all get along here. It's a great group of guys with a good vibe in the room. It's a close-knit group. We're going to get as far as we can.
Translation:
Whew. Thought someone might take my contract for a while there. Ha ha. Anyway, nobody here gives me a hard time, so it's nice. We'll have some fun in April, but don't hold your breath, fans.
There you go. Post-deadline comments translated for your reading pleasure. The Canadiens will undoubtedly do their best to make the playoffs and advance in them, but they will be hard-pressed to do so. Just as Gauthier was hard-pressed to turn a lack of expendable assets into concrete help. All we can do is support the team and hang on for the ride.
Monday, February 28, 2011
The Gomez Effect
Perception is a funny thing. You might read post-game reports from two different people who watched the same event, and one will say a certain defenceman made three giveaways while the other person will point out how the same defenceman blocked three shots. Both might be true, but the lasting impression of the game depends on the perceptions of the observer. We see what we want to see.
This season, Scott Gomez is getting a lot of heat, not only for his own lacklustre play (7 goals, 30 points, -19), but also for immediately killing the production of every winger he's given. The question amidst the criticism, however, is how much of it is truth, and how much perception? To find out, it's time to crunch some numbers.
I have broken down the performance of the six wingers who have played most often this season with both Gomez and Tomas Plekanec, for comparison purposes. I restricted the analysis to even-strength points, as special teams combinations tend to be much more fluid and are influenced by such factors as the other team's effectiveness on the PK.
Here's how it breaks down:
Andrei Kostitsyn. Kostitsyn has played 39 of 62 games with Plekanec, and put up 19 of his 25 even-strength points (ESP), for 0.49 PPG. With Plekanec, he's a +9. He's played 15 games with Gomez, registering only two ESP, or 0.24 PPG. With Gomez, he's -6.
Brian Gionta. The captain played 37 of 63 games with Gomez, and scored 9 ESP, or 0.24 PPG, with a -6 rating. In 26 games with Plekanec, he has 16 ESP, or 0.62 PPG, with a +8.
Michael Cammalleri. Cammy played 35 of 48 games with Plekanec, scoring 17 of his 20 ESP...or 85%...in those games. That's 0.49 PPG, with a +13 rating. In his 9 games with Gomez, Cammalleri had 2 ESP for 0.22 PPG and a -2 rating.
Max Pacioretty. Pax has spent 24 of 33 games on Gomez' wing. In those games, he's got 9 ESP, or 0.39 PPG, and is -8. He's played 9 games with Plekanec and scored 5 ESP, or 0.56 PPG, and is +2.
Benoit Pouliot. In 4 games with Gomez, he's scored 3 ESP, for 0.75 PPG, with a +1 rating. In 3 games with Plekanec, he's got 2 ESP, for 0.67 PPG, and a +2
Lars Eller. He's played 7 games on Plekanec's wing, and scored 2 ESP, for 0.29 PPG, with a -3. In 5 games with Gomez, he's got no ESP and is -5.
Travis Moen. He played no games with Plekanec, but 20 with Gomez. In those 20 games, he has 2 ESP, for an average of 0.10 PPG and a -1 rating.
The grand total for both centres: Of the seven players (including Moen in Gomez' case) who have spent the vast majority of the season flanking Gomez and Plekanec at even strength, those playing with Plekanec average 0.42 even-strength PPG and are a combined +31. The same players, skating with Gomez, have scored an average 0.28 even-strength PPG, with a combined -26.
Those numbers, like all statistics, should be taken with a view of the big picture. Gomez, after all, had 20 games centering a stone-hands guy like Travis Moen while Plekanec had none. (Although, it should also be noted that in 5 games in which Plekanec played with 3rd/4th liners Darche and Halpern, those guys have 0.8 even-strength PPG, and are a combined +5.)
Ice time doesn't figure into the comparison, as Gomez and his assorted wingers got the most playing time of any line about as many times as Plekanec did. Neither does competition account for the discrepancy between the centres' performance. In more than 80% of the Canadiens' games, Plekanec and his wingers face the opposition's top defence pair (defined as the opposing defencemen who get the most ice time in a game) more often than any other line.
It would seem, then, that playing with Scott Gomez this season really is the Pit of Despair for wingers. Five of the six wingers who've played with both have seen their production at even strength drop by half when moved to Gomez' line. The other, Max Pacioretty, dropped by about a third.
Interestingly, the only winger who performed better with Gomez than any other, Benoit Pouliot, played only four games on Gomez' wing before being permanently removed from the line. Considering that he's put up only 0.32 PPG with Halpern, 0.23 PPG with Eller and 0.33 PPG with Desharnais, Martin might consider moving Pouliot back with Gomez for a trial period, just to see if those early games were a fluke or not.
It's also interesting to see Kostitsyn begin to produce again after his removal from Gomez' line. He has a combined 0.53 even-strength PPG playing with Halpern or Eller. It would be wise of Martin to keep him away from Gomez forever.
Sometimes, we adopt an image of a player's performance based purely on perception. We don't like Gomez' contract, or we never warmed up to the trade, so we see the bad things he does and ignore the good. In the case of his wingers, however, the numbers show there is a definite Gomez Effect. That's not perception. That's fact.
This season, Scott Gomez is getting a lot of heat, not only for his own lacklustre play (7 goals, 30 points, -19), but also for immediately killing the production of every winger he's given. The question amidst the criticism, however, is how much of it is truth, and how much perception? To find out, it's time to crunch some numbers.
I have broken down the performance of the six wingers who have played most often this season with both Gomez and Tomas Plekanec, for comparison purposes. I restricted the analysis to even-strength points, as special teams combinations tend to be much more fluid and are influenced by such factors as the other team's effectiveness on the PK.
Here's how it breaks down:
Andrei Kostitsyn. Kostitsyn has played 39 of 62 games with Plekanec, and put up 19 of his 25 even-strength points (ESP), for 0.49 PPG. With Plekanec, he's a +9. He's played 15 games with Gomez, registering only two ESP, or 0.24 PPG. With Gomez, he's -6.
Brian Gionta. The captain played 37 of 63 games with Gomez, and scored 9 ESP, or 0.24 PPG, with a -6 rating. In 26 games with Plekanec, he has 16 ESP, or 0.62 PPG, with a +8.
Michael Cammalleri. Cammy played 35 of 48 games with Plekanec, scoring 17 of his 20 ESP...or 85%...in those games. That's 0.49 PPG, with a +13 rating. In his 9 games with Gomez, Cammalleri had 2 ESP for 0.22 PPG and a -2 rating.
Max Pacioretty. Pax has spent 24 of 33 games on Gomez' wing. In those games, he's got 9 ESP, or 0.39 PPG, and is -8. He's played 9 games with Plekanec and scored 5 ESP, or 0.56 PPG, and is +2.
Benoit Pouliot. In 4 games with Gomez, he's scored 3 ESP, for 0.75 PPG, with a +1 rating. In 3 games with Plekanec, he's got 2 ESP, for 0.67 PPG, and a +2
Lars Eller. He's played 7 games on Plekanec's wing, and scored 2 ESP, for 0.29 PPG, with a -3. In 5 games with Gomez, he's got no ESP and is -5.
Travis Moen. He played no games with Plekanec, but 20 with Gomez. In those 20 games, he has 2 ESP, for an average of 0.10 PPG and a -1 rating.
The grand total for both centres: Of the seven players (including Moen in Gomez' case) who have spent the vast majority of the season flanking Gomez and Plekanec at even strength, those playing with Plekanec average 0.42 even-strength PPG and are a combined +31. The same players, skating with Gomez, have scored an average 0.28 even-strength PPG, with a combined -26.
Those numbers, like all statistics, should be taken with a view of the big picture. Gomez, after all, had 20 games centering a stone-hands guy like Travis Moen while Plekanec had none. (Although, it should also be noted that in 5 games in which Plekanec played with 3rd/4th liners Darche and Halpern, those guys have 0.8 even-strength PPG, and are a combined +5.)
Ice time doesn't figure into the comparison, as Gomez and his assorted wingers got the most playing time of any line about as many times as Plekanec did. Neither does competition account for the discrepancy between the centres' performance. In more than 80% of the Canadiens' games, Plekanec and his wingers face the opposition's top defence pair (defined as the opposing defencemen who get the most ice time in a game) more often than any other line.
It would seem, then, that playing with Scott Gomez this season really is the Pit of Despair for wingers. Five of the six wingers who've played with both have seen their production at even strength drop by half when moved to Gomez' line. The other, Max Pacioretty, dropped by about a third.
Interestingly, the only winger who performed better with Gomez than any other, Benoit Pouliot, played only four games on Gomez' wing before being permanently removed from the line. Considering that he's put up only 0.32 PPG with Halpern, 0.23 PPG with Eller and 0.33 PPG with Desharnais, Martin might consider moving Pouliot back with Gomez for a trial period, just to see if those early games were a fluke or not.
It's also interesting to see Kostitsyn begin to produce again after his removal from Gomez' line. He has a combined 0.53 even-strength PPG playing with Halpern or Eller. It would be wise of Martin to keep him away from Gomez forever.
Sometimes, we adopt an image of a player's performance based purely on perception. We don't like Gomez' contract, or we never warmed up to the trade, so we see the bad things he does and ignore the good. In the case of his wingers, however, the numbers show there is a definite Gomez Effect. That's not perception. That's fact.
Friday, February 25, 2011
Aftermath: Trust
Hockey is, as are all team games, an exercise in trust. That's why teams do those ridiculous bonding tests during training camp, in which a blindfolded player is guided around obstacles by a teammate's voice, or a guy's got to fall backward and let a teammate catch him. Those silly games are just metaphors for what happens on the ice. Every player needs to know he can count on the guy skating next to him to cover his mistakes, assist on his goals and have his back in the rough going. Equally important, every player needs to feel that his teammates and coach trust him to do the job he's assigned. The ephemeral "confidence" players talk about starts with knowing others believe he can perform up to expectations, and that, in turn, begins with the coach.
Jacques Martin doesn't trust his backup goalie. He plays Carey Price as often as possible because he doesn't like Alex Auld's chances to win. As a result, Auld plays once a month and, unsurprisingly, comes in rusty half the time. He stunk last night, but you have to wonder how much of his poor timing was the result of sitting for weeks.
Martin doesn't trust most of his defence either. His natural tendency to rely on proven veterans over younger players in must-win situations means he's seriously overplaying the only remaining vet who can actually skate. Roman Hamrlik played more than 28 minutes again last night; the second time in a week he was on the ice for nearly half the game. That included an inexplicable 6:35 on the PP, for a guy who's averaged 2:46 per game with the man advantage all year. Hammer is tired, and when he's tired, he makes mistakes.
Most troubling, the coach doesn't trust his kids. In a game in which the Canadiens fell into a deep hole early, you'd think anyone with a pulse and the potential to score a goal would be taking a regular shift. Instead, Kostitsyn, Pouliot, Eller and Desharnais all got fewer than nine minutes of ice time at even strength. Max Pacioretty was on the ice five minutes less than his veteran linemates, and one can only imagine how much ice time P.K.Subban would be getting if the defence weren't totally decimated. This isn't a good situation. The kids can only learn by playing, and getting minimal minutes because the coach is afraid they'll screw up isn't giving them much confidence. Those five young forwards account for a good part of the team's hope for the future. They need to play.
Spinning off from Martin's lack of faith in the kids is his over-reliance on Scott Gomez. The man has fewer goals (7) than Kostitsyn, Pouliot and Pacioretty and only one more than Desharnais, who's played in 37 fewer games. His 30 points are only slightly better than P.K.Subban's...a rookie defenceman's...27. There is absolutely no evidence, dramatic pointless rushing notwithstanding, that Scott Gomez will be the man who will come up with a vital tying goal. Yet, he played more than 20 minutes last night, including 4:08 on the PP. With all that ice time, Gomez came up with no goals, no assists and was a -1. At least he didn't take a dumb penalty for once. Perhaps that was Martin's justification for sending Gomez out for shift after shift when the team was desperate.
Trust is one of the most important intangibles in a team sport. Players have to trust each other, but they also have to trust their coach to believe in them and put the right players on the ice at the right time. The young players, untried though they may be, have to be getting frustrated when they end up sitting in favour of veterans who don't get the job done.
Martin coaches with a fear of losing rather than a drive to win. Someone needs to tell him losing by one goal is still losing, and he has to loosen the reins on some players. He's got to start trusting players to do their jobs.
Jacques Martin doesn't trust his backup goalie. He plays Carey Price as often as possible because he doesn't like Alex Auld's chances to win. As a result, Auld plays once a month and, unsurprisingly, comes in rusty half the time. He stunk last night, but you have to wonder how much of his poor timing was the result of sitting for weeks.
Martin doesn't trust most of his defence either. His natural tendency to rely on proven veterans over younger players in must-win situations means he's seriously overplaying the only remaining vet who can actually skate. Roman Hamrlik played more than 28 minutes again last night; the second time in a week he was on the ice for nearly half the game. That included an inexplicable 6:35 on the PP, for a guy who's averaged 2:46 per game with the man advantage all year. Hammer is tired, and when he's tired, he makes mistakes.
Most troubling, the coach doesn't trust his kids. In a game in which the Canadiens fell into a deep hole early, you'd think anyone with a pulse and the potential to score a goal would be taking a regular shift. Instead, Kostitsyn, Pouliot, Eller and Desharnais all got fewer than nine minutes of ice time at even strength. Max Pacioretty was on the ice five minutes less than his veteran linemates, and one can only imagine how much ice time P.K.Subban would be getting if the defence weren't totally decimated. This isn't a good situation. The kids can only learn by playing, and getting minimal minutes because the coach is afraid they'll screw up isn't giving them much confidence. Those five young forwards account for a good part of the team's hope for the future. They need to play.
Spinning off from Martin's lack of faith in the kids is his over-reliance on Scott Gomez. The man has fewer goals (7) than Kostitsyn, Pouliot and Pacioretty and only one more than Desharnais, who's played in 37 fewer games. His 30 points are only slightly better than P.K.Subban's...a rookie defenceman's...27. There is absolutely no evidence, dramatic pointless rushing notwithstanding, that Scott Gomez will be the man who will come up with a vital tying goal. Yet, he played more than 20 minutes last night, including 4:08 on the PP. With all that ice time, Gomez came up with no goals, no assists and was a -1. At least he didn't take a dumb penalty for once. Perhaps that was Martin's justification for sending Gomez out for shift after shift when the team was desperate.
Trust is one of the most important intangibles in a team sport. Players have to trust each other, but they also have to trust their coach to believe in them and put the right players on the ice at the right time. The young players, untried though they may be, have to be getting frustrated when they end up sitting in favour of veterans who don't get the job done.
Martin coaches with a fear of losing rather than a drive to win. Someone needs to tell him losing by one goal is still losing, and he has to loosen the reins on some players. He's got to start trusting players to do their jobs.
Thursday, February 24, 2011
leafs vs. Habs - Ye Auld Edition
Notes on the third:
-Andrei Kostitsyn might have made up Gauthier's mind on deal or no deal by missing that gaping net on the PP.
-I know Gomez has been a successful offensive player in the past. Now, though, he's just offensive. Why does the Knife continue to give him primo ice time?
-Oh, come on! FIVE goals against the leafs? The D is hurting, but this is just ridiculous.
-Plekanec kills penalties like Picasso painted one-eyed women.
-Uh oh. Halfway through the third and RDS is already sounding resigned. Maybe I should go to bed.
-Terrible PP. It should be called Ivan.
-This was awful, all around, starting with Auld. Good luck with the playoff run, Habs.
Notes on the second:
-If I met a genie and got three wishes, one of them would be to hear the unedited Hal Gill commentary to the refs.
-It's not a good thing that Hammer seems to be sucking fumes on the rush, is it?
-Oh, Cammy! That shot, when it's on, is as accurate as a rectal thermometer.
-And Wiz. I was just wondering why he doesn't shoot anymore, then he blasts one harder than diamonds.
-Ugh. Complete defensive breakdown to give the tie away.
-Sometimes Hamrlik looks like the Yoda of defence. And sometimes he looks like the Pee Wee Herman.
-Funny TV moment: Muller drawing a play on the notebook for Cammalleri. Cammalleri takes the pen and starts to draw one back. Muller takes the pen, moves down the bench. Next shot is Muller drawing a play on the notebook for Pleks and Halpern.
-Can't help wishing Price protected his neck better. Everytime I see a goalie with a "dangler" I wish Price had one.
-Gill needs an O2 tank on some of those icing races.
-Why do the Habs never score that late back-breaker?
-It must be so easy to play with Pleks. All you have to do is be on the other side of the net with your stick on the ice. He puts it cross-crease every time. How hard is that for his wingers to get?
-Good period for the Habs, but Auld's damage may be too much to repair.
Notes on the first:
-If Phaneuf had four fewer brain cells, he'd be a geranium.
-Sigh. Sometimes Subban really reminds you that he's a 21-year-old rookie. His dumb drop pass on the PP forced Wisniewski into a rotten penalty. Martin will remember that as if P.K. took the two himself.
-All this scrumming after the whistle means I'm going to be losing a lot of sleep tonight.
-Desharnais sticks to the crease like a burr to a wool sock.
-Nice shot by Hammer. I'd give him another year for cheap.
-That idiot Komisarek just mauled Pleks. No call, naturally.
-Oh, but there IS a huge phantom call on Gionta that gives One-Ball Phil a freebie.
-Auld is horrid. And Last-Pick Kessel now has more goals than gonads.
-Poor Price. He can't have a night off because his backup has more holes than Brian Mulroney's story before the Oliphant Commission.
-I worry Price may throw his shoulder out of socket with one of those windmill glove saves.
-Terrible reffing. I would hope there's at least a make-up call coming.
-Andrei Kostitsyn might have made up Gauthier's mind on deal or no deal by missing that gaping net on the PP.
-I know Gomez has been a successful offensive player in the past. Now, though, he's just offensive. Why does the Knife continue to give him primo ice time?
-Oh, come on! FIVE goals against the leafs? The D is hurting, but this is just ridiculous.
-Plekanec kills penalties like Picasso painted one-eyed women.
-Uh oh. Halfway through the third and RDS is already sounding resigned. Maybe I should go to bed.
-Terrible PP. It should be called Ivan.
-This was awful, all around, starting with Auld. Good luck with the playoff run, Habs.
Notes on the second:
-If I met a genie and got three wishes, one of them would be to hear the unedited Hal Gill commentary to the refs.
-It's not a good thing that Hammer seems to be sucking fumes on the rush, is it?
-Oh, Cammy! That shot, when it's on, is as accurate as a rectal thermometer.
-And Wiz. I was just wondering why he doesn't shoot anymore, then he blasts one harder than diamonds.
-Ugh. Complete defensive breakdown to give the tie away.
-Sometimes Hamrlik looks like the Yoda of defence. And sometimes he looks like the Pee Wee Herman.
-Funny TV moment: Muller drawing a play on the notebook for Cammalleri. Cammalleri takes the pen and starts to draw one back. Muller takes the pen, moves down the bench. Next shot is Muller drawing a play on the notebook for Pleks and Halpern.
-Can't help wishing Price protected his neck better. Everytime I see a goalie with a "dangler" I wish Price had one.
-Gill needs an O2 tank on some of those icing races.
-Why do the Habs never score that late back-breaker?
-It must be so easy to play with Pleks. All you have to do is be on the other side of the net with your stick on the ice. He puts it cross-crease every time. How hard is that for his wingers to get?
-Good period for the Habs, but Auld's damage may be too much to repair.
Notes on the first:
-If Phaneuf had four fewer brain cells, he'd be a geranium.
-Sigh. Sometimes Subban really reminds you that he's a 21-year-old rookie. His dumb drop pass on the PP forced Wisniewski into a rotten penalty. Martin will remember that as if P.K. took the two himself.
-All this scrumming after the whistle means I'm going to be losing a lot of sleep tonight.
-Desharnais sticks to the crease like a burr to a wool sock.
-Nice shot by Hammer. I'd give him another year for cheap.
-That idiot Komisarek just mauled Pleks. No call, naturally.
-Oh, but there IS a huge phantom call on Gionta that gives One-Ball Phil a freebie.
-Auld is horrid. And Last-Pick Kessel now has more goals than gonads.
-Poor Price. He can't have a night off because his backup has more holes than Brian Mulroney's story before the Oliphant Commission.
-I worry Price may throw his shoulder out of socket with one of those windmill glove saves.
-Terrible reffing. I would hope there's at least a make-up call coming.
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