Tick Dach

     

    It couldn't have been an easy decision for Kirby Dach.

    The 25-year-old former third-overall NHL draft pick is at a crossroads in his career. At his age players are either moving into their prime years or still struggling to prove themselves. If the latter, the chances of him succeeding become fewer and fewer as time passes.

    Dach is seven years past his draft and he still has not proven to be the kind of player Kent Hughes wants to lock in for either big term or big money. Of course, his long string of unfortunate injuries (beyond his control) have hampered his career development. Still, when a player has sat out more games than he's laced up, it doesn't give the GM much to work with in evaluating his potential with a team.

    In Hughes' case, that evaluation is all-important. He's built a reputation on knowing when a player has reached peak potential and making the best decision he can for the team and its salary structure. With so much time missing from Dach's resume, Hughes may have thought the best option was to qualify the player at a respectable four million dollars and give him a year to prove he is worth keeping around for a longer term.

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    Dach had other ideas.

    Either he or his agent, Gerry Johannson, or both, think the player's body of work is enough to earn him more than his qualifying offer and elected to go to arbitration. This will not end well.

    Arbitration creates division and bitterness; two things Hughes has no interest in introducing to his tight-knit "family atmosphere." And there's little chance of avoiding that. By its very nature, arbitration is antagonistic. The player has to talk about why he's so great and the team has to talk about why he's not. Hughes will bring up Dach's injury history and his lack of expected production overall. He'll have to tell Dach he's not at the same level as the players...Juraj Slafkovsky, Lane Hutson and Ivan Demidov...who are years younger than Dach and already locked in long-term for excellent money. Deep down, Dach may recognize the truth of that, but it will hurt all the same. Even if he wins his arbitration case, the relationship with Hughes won't be the same.

    The thing with Dach is he's been given every opportunity to do well in Montreal. His 6'4" frame, nice hands and good mobility are like catnip for most GMs. It's why Hughes took a flyer on a guy the Blackhawks had already decided wasn't going to live up to his draft hype, and why he gave up a promising young D and two strong draft picks to acquire him.

    Considering his price, you have to think Hughes wanted to either sign him to a reasonable deal to give him one more shot in Montreal or sign him and then package him in a trade. Dach's decision to go to arbitration ties Hughes' hands. If the team wins the arbitration case, he can keep an unhappy Dach for a year, or walk away from him with nothing in return. They can still trade him if they win the case, but the way this plays out could negatively impact his value, especially if he costs more for another team to acquire. It's hard to imagine the Canadiens signing him to a bigger deal, only to retain part of it in a trade.

    Hughes does not like taking those kinds of losses on investment and it may indicate he was blindsided by Dach's choice.

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    If Dach wins his case (although it's difficult to imagine what kind of convincing argument he can make since he's got 51 career goals which Cole Caufield matched in a single season), it would force Hughes to either pay him or trade him. Since Hughes manages his cap very carefully, one can imagine paying an extra couple of million to retain Dach isn't in his plan. So at this point, it looks like Dach will be moved whether he wins or loses his case.

    That's what likely made this a tough choice for him.

    He appears to be liked by his teammates and likes them in return. He's not been a vocal distraction through all his struggles. He's been part of something special as part of the renewed Canadiens team, playing for a coach other players name as a reason why they'd sign with Montreal. That's a lot to give up for the sake of a bigger paycheck.

    Yet, the crossroad remains. He knows he's got fewer years left to make the money he'll need to support his family and his lifestyle for the rest of his days. He knows his injury history is troubling and he has no idea if it will end his career in a year or two. He had a relatively healthy playoff, so this may seem to him the best opportunity he's going to get to start banking for his future. Seeing some of the ridiculous contracts others are signing this summer probably reinforces his belief that this is his opportunity.

    There's still a chance the two sides can reconcile and avoid arbitration with a compromise deal. 

    At this point, though, Dach has made his choice for better or for worse.