The award-winning science fiction writer Stephen Leigh once wrote "Rumors are like lightning on summer tinder, producing flames that dance in flickering brilliance from person to person, sometimes flaring in great conflagrations of exaggeration before finally extinguishing themselves in the cold waters of fact." He was talking about prejudice and race relations in his novel Speaking Stones, but he could just as easily have been talking about the insanity we witness every year around the NHL trade deadline.
So far this season, we've heard all the rumours, from Michael Hage, Kaiden Guhle and two first-round picks for the Blues' Robert Thomas, to Patrick Laine to the Kings for Corey Perry. Like they've all got arseholes, everyone has an opinion about what the Habs will do at the deadline. The thing is, the only opinions that matter are those of Kent Hughes and Jeff Gorton. The rest of the talk is (apologies to Macbeth) sound and fury, signifying nothing. It's Leigh's great conflagration of exaggeration.
If we've learned anything from Hughes and Gorton it's that we'll only find out what they're up to once they're done doing it. It'll probably be something no rumour monger thought about, and if they do nothing it's because there was nothing to do. Either way, all the predictions, rumours, potential line combos and trade proposals are only a way to kill time until there's something to talk about.
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These guys are very smart. They're not your grandpa's GMs, who'd trade Tomas Plekanec, Carey Price, a first-rounder and a couple of prospects for a late-career Vincent Lecavalier. They also wouldn't have traded Higgins, Ryan McDonagh and prospects for Scott Gomez and his anchor of a contract. (You know who you are, Bob Gainey.) So the pundits and the peons are wasting valuable oxygen talking about what HuGo is going to do.
They have a plan. They'll stick to that plan because they're already ahead of schedule in their rebuild and they're working from a position of strength. They have the picks, the prospects the money and the pros they need to make a deal if it fits their plan. However, they're not like other Canadiens' GMs. They don't care about attracting a big, established French Canadian player. They won't sell the farm for a centre based on one or two good seasons. And they won't go all in on a veteran rental who may or may not fit with the team's culture on the off chance they can sneak into the Conference Finals or better.
Speaking of culture, the HuGo plan has been unwavering in a couple of areas. They want players who match up with the current roster in terms of age and contract status. They also want smart guys with hardworking character. It's unlikely they'd take on a player like Nazem Kadri, despite all the rumours of their interest, because he's older, more expensive and way dirtier a player than the rest of the team. They have little interest in courting controversy or distraction around their young guys. If there's a move coming, it'll likely be more of a Kirby Dach situation, in which a young, talented former first-rounder with a ton of potential needs a new start.
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The Habs got to the Finals in 2021 when nobody expected it. That could happen again just because of the "if you punch your ticket anything can happen" philosophy. Perhaps Jakub Dobes will pull another rookie goalie miracle out of his butt and carry the team far, but the most realistic scenario is the Canadiens will make the playoffs (barring an unforeseen disaster in a tight Eastern Conference race) and give a good showing of themselves, but they won't go all the way this year. They don't have tight enough team defence or, arguably, enough grit and toughness right now and adding a piece at the deadline, unless it's an unexpected blockbuster, won't change everything overnight. If they can take another step forward over last year's results, it's all gravy for fans who've not seen a Cup since '93.
Hughes will not trade a player if he's not fairly sure of that guy's upside. Maybe that means they already suspect someone like David Reinbacher will never reach his potential due to a fragile physique and will be willing to move him. Or maybe it means the prospects are all on track and nobody will leave. He'll be very careful about giving up a player who might be a star somewhere else. That's what he does to other team's GMs.
In any case, we'll all know the truth on Friday, when the rumours extinguish themselves in the cold waters of fact.
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